1. Exchange BTC inventory falls below 2.6 million, liquidity crisis on the verge of breaking out.
According to the latest data from Fidelity, as of April 24, 2025, the global exchange BTC inventory has fallen to 2.6 million, the lowest level since November 2018. Since November 2024, over 425,000 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges, equivalent to 2.5% of the current market circulation. This phenomenon is particularly significant against the backdrop of a 5.1% drop in Bitcoin prices over the last 7 days, indicating that investors are accelerating their hoarding during price corrections, contrasting sharply with the traditional financial market behavior of 'selling more when prices drop.'
Key data comparison:
On-chain data shows that the net transfer of miners to exchanges has dropped to an average of 125 BTC per day, only 27.8% of mining output. This means that over 70% of the 450 new BTC added daily is being directly hoarded into cold wallets rather than flowing into the trading market. This 'production equals hoarding' model is fundamentally changing the supply-demand structure of Bitcoin.
2. Institutional buying spree: 350,000 BTC have been acquired by public companies.
After the U.S. election, institutional investors' hoarding behavior reached a fever pitch:
Public companies: MicroStrategy, Tesla, and others have cumulatively increased their holdings by nearly 350,000 BTC, purchasing over 30,000 on average each month.
Asset management giant: BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) holdings have surpassed 500,000 BTC, exceeding its gold fund size.
Sovereign capital: The Ukrainian government holds 40,000 BTC, ranking fourth among global government holdings.
The direct consequence of this 'national team' entry is:
Exchange liquidity exhaustion: Almost all BTC purchased by institutions has been transferred to cold wallets, resulting in a sharp reduction in tradable chips.
Price discovery mechanism failure: Daily trading volume in the spot market has decreased by 37% year-on-year, with prices increasingly dominated by the futures market.
Volatility compression: Bitcoin's 30-day volatility has dropped to 18%, the lowest level since 2021.
3. The butterfly effect of supply and demand imbalance: Is $80,000 just the starting point?
Historical patterns verified:
The current inventory decline is close to the levels seen at the start of the previous two bull markets, while the price increase is only 60% of the historical average, indicating strong demand for catch-up.
Mathematical model deduction
According to the data supply-demand model, when exchange inventory falls below 2.5 million:
Short term (1-3 months): Price volatility will expand to 40%, with over 60% probability of daily fluctuations exceeding 10%.
Medium term (6-12 months): Supply-demand gap will drive prices above $120,000, corresponding to a market value of $2.4 trillion.
Long term (2-3 years): If inventory continues to decline below 2 million, prices may challenge the $200,000 mark.
Policy catalysts
U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserves: The Trump administration plans to use the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) to purchase BTC, potentially locking in over 500,000 chips.
ETF expansion: The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF holdings have reached 888,600 BTC, accounting for 5.2% of the circulation.
Halving effect: After the halving in April 2024, the daily new BTC will decrease to 900, down 50% from before.
As the market continues to change, we need to closely monitor market signals and seize new entry opportunities. Follow Ajiu, and together we will navigate the bull market and capture this major opportunity!
