The price of the large pancake at #特朗普暂停新关税 remains in a narrow range of 93K-95K, showing a "high-level converging triangle" pattern in technical terms. The Bollinger Bands have narrowed to a range of 500U, and the RSI indicator is stable at the neutral zone of 55, indicating a temporary balance of bullish and bearish forces. However, caution is advised against the curse of "after a long consolidation, there will be a spike." The current price has reached the third test of the 95K resistance band this year, and if it cannot effectively break through, it may trigger a technical pullback. In terms of chip distribution: the short positions above 95K account for less than 12%, while there is a value of 4.8 billion in long positions in the 88K-90K dollar range, which also faces a delivery pressure of 1.2 billion U in put options expiring. The market shows a pattern of "pressure above and squeezing below," and it is advisable to continue monitoring or lock in positions in advance. If it falls below 92K, there is a need to guard against the risk of a long squeeze. The current volatility index has risen to a warning level of 45%, and strict position control is required to deal with potential liquidation shocks.

PS: The previous expectation of oscillating upward has been adjusted to "after a long consolidation, there will be a spike."