$ETH The lifting of China's 125% tariffs on select U.S. imports marks a potential de-escalation in trade tensions, which could ease pressure on global supply chains and bolster market sentiment. Trump’s 90-day pause on most reciprocal tariffs (excluding China) adds complexity, as it suggests a temporary reprieve for other trading partners but keeps the heat on U.S.-China relations. His inconsistent messaging, however, is a wildcard—contradictory statements fuel uncertainty, and markets hate ambiguity.A "DUMP" (Downturn in U.S. Markets and Prices) isn’t guaranteed but remains a risk. The mixed market reaction reflects traders grappling with this uncertainty, as seen in recent volatility (e.g., S&P 500’s 9.5% surge post-pause announcement, followed by a 3.4% drop). Key factors to watch include whether China’s tariff relief extends to more goods (e.g., semiconductors saw exemptions recently) and if Trump’s team clarifies policy direction. Bond yields spiking to 4.5% and recession fears (45% probability per Goldman Sachs) signal underlying fragility.For traders, caution is warranted. Monitor macro indicators like Treasury yields, the U.S. Dollar Index, and consumer inflation expectations (highest since 1981). Short-term volatility is likely, especially if Trump’s rhetoric shifts again or China responds unpredictably. Hedge positions, diversify exposure, and stay glued to real-time updates—clarity may be weeks away as trade talks unfold.