Who does not agree with me:$TRX’s drivers were internal or regional rather than Bitcoin’s trend.

$TRX -Specific News & Announcements

Influential Tweets and Partnerships:

Justin Sun and the Tron team often spark TRX rallies with high-profile announcements. For example, a single tweet by Sun (“TRX=BTC” on Apr 26, 2025) caused TRX to surge 12.3% in one hour, while Bitcoin barely moved. Similarly, hints of a “new chapter” for Tron on Apr 25, 2025 drove TRX up 8.2% in an hour. These outsized moves are tied to TRX-specific excitement (e.g. new projects, partnerships or upgrades) rather than the overall market. Likewise, when Sun publicly backed a new crypto project (Dec 2024), TRX doubled from ~$0.22 to $0.45 in a day. In each case, TRX jumped on the news even though the broader market (and BTC) was flat or only mildly affected.

Network Upgrades & Ecosystem Projects:

Technical or ecosystem developments can also decouple TRX from BTC. For instance, activating the TRC-20 network or major Tron DAO proposals generates buzz that can drive TRX up independently. Experts noted that TRX “winking at bull season” with TRC-20 activation after a market pullback. In short, Tron’s own roadmap events often create buying pressure for TRX regardless of Bitcoin’s trend.

Stablecoin Flows and DeFi on Tron

USDT Minting on Tron:

Tether’s activity on the Tron blockchain directly affects TRX demand. When Tether minted large amounts of USDT on Tron, traders needed TRX to pay gas and fees, boosting TRX’s price. For example, on Apr 10, 2025, Tether minted 1 billion USDT on Tron; this corresponded with TRX rallying ~10% over three days despite broader market jitters. CoinDesk noted TRX “defying market jitters” as USDT flows signaled confidence. A Bitrue analysis similarly found that adding $1B USDT on Tron gave TRX a quick 2.5% lift in one hour (along with surging volume). More USDT on Tron also means higher network usage, further increasing TRX utility (gas fees).

USDD Stablecoin Arbitrage:

Tron’s own algorithmic stablecoin (USDD) ties TRX’s price to its peg. USDD employs a smart-contract arbitrage: if USDD > $1, users can swap 1 USDD for $1 worth of TRX (and vice versa when below peg). Thus fluctuations in USDD supply create automatic buying or selling of TRX, sometimes overriding market trends. For example, if USDD dipped below $1, arbitrageurs would buy TRX to mint USDD, pushing TRX up even if BTC were down. Decrypt explains this mechanism: “By selling the newly-minted TRX, users pocket arbitrage profits for keeping the coin at its peg”. Such stablecoin operations can make TRX move opposite to $BTC during stress periods.

Other Tron DeFi & Tokens:

The growth of Tron’s DeFi ecosystem (e.g. JustLend, SunSwap) and token projects (BitTorrent ($BTT), $SUN , WIN, etc.) can spur isolated demand for TRX. Major token launches or staking incentives on Tron often require TRX as collateral, creating localized price pressure. For instance, releases of Tron-backed tokens (like Tether’s Chinese-Yuan stablecoin CNHT on Tron) drove user activity. When many users ramp up activity on Tron (minting USDT/CNHT, staking USDD, yield farming), TRX may rally even if BTC weakens.

Market Makers & Whale Activity

Justin Sun & Poloniex Influence:

Tron’s founder and associated entities can function as de facto market makers. Justin Sun (owner of Poloniex exchange) and Tron DAO Reserve have at times shifted large asset positions. On-chain data shows that large TRX whales often accumulate on price dips. For example, a blockchain analysis found multiple “whale” wallets swooped in after a March 2025 dip. Historically, vague tweets from Sun (“witness the miracle”, etc.) have precipitated quick TRX pumps. One report notes that after a 2022 teaser tweet, TRX jumped 12% in 48 hours even though no new utility was announced. These operations – whales buying TRX while the crowd is unsure – can push TRX up independently.

Exchange Order Flow:

TRX is heavily traded on certain exchanges. Sudden shifts in exchange flows (e.g. a big sell or buy order) can distort TRX’s short-term correlation with BTC. In some cases, one exchange may see heavy TRX buying while others do not. For example, trading volume spikes on Binance and Huobi coincided with USDT inflows on Tron. Market makers and bots monitoring Tron’s unique liquidity may create momentum that briefly runs counter to broader altcoin markets.

Regional Demand & Exchange Effects

Asian Market Activity:

TRX is popular in several Asian crypto markets. Local events or preferences can make TRX behave differently. Notably, during South Korea’s political crisis (Dec 2024), Bitcoin crashed ~33% on Korean exchanges, but TRX doubled in price. CoinMarketCap reported TRX jumping from ~$0.21 to $0.43 (a 95% gain) on Dec 3, 2024, as Korean traders flocked to TRX. This “kimchi premium” effect occurred because TRX was used en masse to shuffle funds across Korean exchanges. A Bitget analysis also noted an 80% one-day surge in TRX during the chaos, attributing it to TRX’s role as a fast transfer coin between exchanges in South Korea. In other words, regional crises or rallies can send TRX opposite to global trends.

Local Exchange Listings & Arbitrage:

Different trading pairs can create divergences. For example, if TRX gains a new fiat pair in one country, it may spike locally. Likewise, Tron-based stablecoin trades (like TRX/CNHT or TRX/KRW) can push TRX prices apart from BTC’s global market. Arbitrage opportunities between exchanges (using TRX as the bridge currency) sometimes drive TRX demand. The sources above suggest that in markets like South Korea, rapid asset relocations can elevate TRX while the global market (or BTC) is falling.

Historical Correlation vs. Short-Term Divergence

Generally Correlated, with Exceptions:

Over longer timeframes, TRX tends to follow overall crypto cycles (positive correlation with BTC). One analysis finds TRX’s weekly correlation with Bitcoin around 0.7. However, short-term correlations can be weak or even inverse during big Tron-specific events. A recent 30-day study showed TRX-BTC correlation as low as +0.37, indicating room for divergence. In practice, persistent “reverse” moves are rare; more often these are short-lived anomalies.

Examples of Divergence:

Historical examples highlight these one-off decouplings. Aside from the Korean incident above, TRX hit a multi-year high on Dec 4, 2024 (up 81% in 24h) while BTC was roughly flat. Another case: Justin Sun’s Trump partnership news (Dec 2024) sent TRX surging 100% even though other cryptos did not see similar moves. After such spikes, TRX often corrects or realigns with the market. Thus, TRX’s opposite moves are usually short-term, driven by local catalysts.

Conclusion:

In summary, TRX can diverge from Bitcoin when idiosyncratic factors dominate: Tron’s own news, ecosystem mechanics (stablecoins, burns, staking), big whale actions, or regional demand can swamp the usual market influence. These effects tend to be episodic rather than permanent. Investors note that barring such events, TRX generally rides broader crypto trends. But when a Tron-specific story breaks or a large stablecoin flow occurs, TRX may buck the overall trend

– sometimes briefly moving opposite to BTC.#trxking #trxrealitychk