Today, the special representative of the President of the United States, Donald Trump, Steve Whitcoff, arrived in Moscow once again, where he held a three-hour meeting in the Kremlin with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Western media is speculating about what the Russian president discussed during the meeting with Trump's special representative, which is stirring up excitement in the Russian stock market. However, the administration of the President of the Russian Federation officially reported today that one of the main topics of conversation between Putin and Whitcoff was the settlement in Ukraine, including the resumption of direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.
In our view, if direct negotiations resume this summer and are followed by an agreement on a prolonged ceasefire, the stock market could immediately soar to 3200 points, and the dollar could drop to about 75-77 rubles. If sanctions against Russia are lifted as a result of the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, including the 'price cap' on oil, sanctions against banks, and leaders of the Russian oil and gas industry, the dollar could fall into the range of 70-75 rubles, and the stock market could rise to 3600-3700 points.