#特朗普暂停新关税

1. Direct Reasons for Suspending Tariffs

Domestic Economic Pressure Forces Adjustment

High tariffs trigger a sharp decline in U.S. stocks (Nasdaq index fell nearly 6% in a single day), and U.S. Treasury yields surge, intensifying market concerns about economic recession. Business leaders collectively lobby the White House, warning that supply chain disruptions and rising consumer costs will weaken U.S. competitiveness.

Treasury Secretary Becerra and other core aides push for a policy shift, emphasizing that "the trade war is difficult to sustain," and that negotiations are needed to alleviate market panic.

International Counterpressure Intensifies

Allies such as the European Union and Canada plan to impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, risking the collapse of the global trading system. For example, the EU originally planned to impose a 25% retaliatory tariff on the U.S., but has now shifted to an "observation period" after the suspension.

China responds in kind (raising tariffs on the U.S. to 125%) and initiates non-tariff measures such as rare earth export controls, exacerbating pressure on U.S. industrial chains.

2. Strategic Intent and Deeper Logic

“Divide and Pressure” Strategy

By exempting tariffs for 75 countries, isolating China and courting allies, the aim is to build an “anti-China alliance.” For example, Vietnam and Japan have committed to increasing U.S. energy and agricultural product purchases in exchange for exemptions.

Testing the Global Supply Chain Replacement Capacity, but data shows that Southeast Asian countries have only 1/5 of China's capacity in precision manufacturing, making it difficult to replace the Chinese supply chain in the short term.

Paving the Way for Election Cycles

Alleviating Inflation Pressure: U.S. CPI rose 3.5% year-on-year in February, and the cost of tariffs being passed on has increased the burden on people's livelihoods, affecting support rates among swing voters.

Shaping Negotiation Outcomes: Trump claims to "reach 90 agreements within 90 days," attempting to showcase "strong diplomatic achievements" before the election.