As of the end of April 2025, President Donald Trump's tariff policy continues to escalate, causing widespread impacts on the global economy and the cryptocurrency market, especially for Ethereum (ETH)
🏛️ Trump's tariff policy: Latest developments
In his second term, President Trump imposed tariffs of up to 145% on imported goods from China, leading to retaliatory measures from Beijing with tariffs of 125%. Although Trump claimed to have reached 200 trade agreements, the White House has not provided specific details, and China denies any recent contact with the U.S.
🌍 Impact on the global economy
📉 Growth decline and recession risk
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its global growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8%, down from 3.3% in 2024, due to the impact of high U.S. tariffs.
The Wharton School's budget model predicts that current tax levels could reduce the long-term GDP of the U.S. by about 6% and decrease average wages by 5%.
Economists warn of a 90% risk of recession in the U.S. if these tax levels are maintained for an extended period.
📦 Supply chain disruptions and inflation
Container shipping volumes from China to the U.S. have plummeted, raising concerns about a goods shortage similar to the COVID-19 pandemic period.
American consumers are facing rising prices and product shortages due to increased import costs and disrupted supply.
🪙 Impact on the cryptocurrency market and Ethereum
📉 Strong price volatility
Following the announcement of tariffs in early April, the price of Ethereum (ETH) dropped sharply, losing over 20% of its value, down to around $1,415 on April 7.
The total liquidation value in the cryptocurrency market exceeded $2.2 billion within 24 hours of the announcement.
📈 Short-term recovery and market sentiment
When President Trump suggested pausing some tariffs on April 9, the cryptocurrency market quickly rebounded; ETH rose by over 10% in the following days.
However, this recovery was not sustainable; ETH has decreased by 2.5% in the past 24 hours, trading around $1,549, due to still weak market sentiment.
🔍 Analysis and forecast
President Trump's inconsistent tariff policy is creating significant instability for businesses and investors, undermining consumer and investment confidence.
If high tariff levels continue to be maintained, the risk of a global economic recession will increase, negatively affecting risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.
Ethereum, serving as a platform for many decentralized financial applications, may face double pressure from reduced liquidity and investor confidence.
📌 Conclusion
President Trump's escalating tariff policy is causing significant negative impacts on the global economy and the cryptocurrency market. Ethereum, despite its potential for recovery, still faces many risks in the current climate of uncertainty. Investors should be cautious and closely monitor key trade policy developments to make informed investment decisions.