#TariffsPause Geopolitics & Markets: the "Tariff Pause" reshapes the landscape of global trade.

The United States recently announced a 90-day tariff pause for over 75 countries, in an attempt to de-escalate trade tensions. However, China is excluded from this truce, still facing surcharges of up to 145%.

This strategy aims to revive bilateral negotiations but heightens tensions with Beijing and maintains uncertainty over supply chains.

Global Impact:

The IMF lowers its global growth forecast to 2.8% in 2025.

The WTO predicts a contraction of global trade of -1.5%.

Several multinationals are revising their margins downward.

Markets are rebounding, but investors remain cautious.

To watch:

The evolution of US/Asia negotiations.

The impact on commodities and trade-sensitive currencies.

Short-term tariff arbitrage opportunities.

Conclusion

This "tariff pause" is not a relaxation but a strategic moment. Economic actors will need to remain agile in the face of rapidly changing trade geopolitics.