#TariffPause Geopolitics & Markets: the "Tariff Pause" reshapes the global trade landscape

The United States recently announced a 90-day tariff pause for over 75 countries, in an attempt to de-escalate trade tensions. However, China is excluded from this truce, still facing surcharges of up to 145%.

This strategy aims to revive bilateral negotiations, but it heightens tensions with Beijing and maintains uncertainty over supply chains.

Global Impact:

The IMF lowers its global growth forecast to 2.8% for 2025.

The WTO forecasts a contraction of global trade by -1.5%.

Several multinationals are revising their margins downward.

Markets are rebounding, but investors remain cautious.

To watch:

The evolution of US/Asia negotiations.

The impact on commodities and trade-sensitive currencies.

Opportunities in short-term tariff arbitrage.

Conclusion

This "tariff pause" is not a relaxation, but a strategic moment. Economic players will need to remain agile in the face of rapidly changing trade geopolitics.