Recent discussions around Ethereum $ETH have been quite numerous, and I would like to share my views on ETH:

1. The essence and reasonable valuation of ETH

As a public chain, Ethereum's core logic is similar to a 'split disk': the ecosystem needs to continuously inject vitality through new projects and narratives. Looking back at history: 2017: ICO boom; 2020-2021: DeFi, NFT, GameFi explosion

These narratives once brought strong momentum to ETH. However, in this cycle, there has yet to be a new narrative or breakthrough application for ETH, lacking new 'split' momentum.

Therefore, the current reasonable valuation range for ETH should refer to the 2020-2021 DeFi dominated period after excluding the NFT and GameFi bubble:

In other words, the current price basically reflects the underlying value supported by the DeFi ecosystem (which is also why ETH's price is hard to break through).

2. Is there a need to be overly bearish on ETH currently?

I believe there is no need to be overly pessimistic about ETH:

Firstly, ETH's core value is solid: DeFi, as the most innovative and vital sector in the crypto space, still highly relies on the Ethereum ecosystem. In the short term, emerging public chains like Solana and Sui are unlikely to shake ETH's position.

Secondly, ETF support: ETH is one of the only two crypto assets currently approved for an ETF (the other being BTC), which has the potential support of institutional fund inflows.

Summary:

The current weakness of ETH is more due to Vitalik Buterin and the Ethereum Foundation's lack of proactive promotion of new narratives. In contrast, SOL $SOL , under the leadership of @calilyliu and the @SolanaFndn Solana Foundation, has an advantage in ecological expansion and market sentiment.

However, overall, ETH's current price has basically fallen back to a reasonable range that only reflects DeFi value, and with ETFs as external incremental funding support, being overly bearish on ETH seems irrational #Ethereum #solana