【Is Breakthrough the End? Has Bitcoin Hit Its Peak?】
Currently, the market trend shows Bitcoin continuously rising, with the divergence rate constantly increasing, but there are no signs of a reversal. Whenever a small bearish signal appears, the next candle pulls it back down. It's now approaching 95k, moving towards 98k, and not far from 100k.
But is the market really so easily returning to a bull run? I can't help but recall a joke I often make when discussing market trends:
"Breakthrough is the end."
As the saying goes, a breakthrough often signifies that the end is near. Will BTC surge and then the main players start to offload and go bearish? Right now, we haven't even broken through the top yet, so the likelihood is still low, but it's not impossible.
The so-called visible opportunity is actually a risk; it's precisely because you see the opportunity to make money through trading that you choose to enter, but in the end, things may not go as expected.
Your losses stem from your blind spots, while your profits come from points that others in the market overlook. In the market square, there are always two voices: one bullish and one bearish; each has its own reasoning, but this market is very realistic: if you're right, you make money; if you're wrong, you lose money.
People either ignore the previous market's substantial volume and extreme overselling, thinking that if it has fallen, it will fall further.
Or they overlook that even before a bullish trend starts, there will be repeated washouts, believing that after hitting the bottom, it must immediately surge.
This has been well validated during this period of one-sided market movements. A plethora of short positions have been liquidated, with many opening shorts at ETH 1720, while countless longs have been washed out. Here, I won't mention anything about position management or the extent of news impact on the market; I will simply discuss the psychological state of traders and the motives behind initiating trades.
Given the current market situation, my personal advice is to be bullish on BTC but cautiously so, and to refrain from going short until a clear top is established.
Rather than focusing solely on making money, we must fully consider all risk points and seek ways to mitigate them, striving to survive should be our primary concern.