Bullish Case:
ETH ETF approval (spot): Would mirror the BTC ETF effect and could send ETH above $5,000.
L2 ecosystem growth: With scaling via L2s like Arbitrum, Base, zkSync—ETH remains the settlement layer.
Staking dominance: Over 30M ETH is staked, reducing circulating supply.
Deflationary model: Post-merge, ETH supply is shrinking during high activity.
Bearish Risks:
Regulatory pressure: ETH may still be viewed as a security in some jurisdictions.
L2 fragmentation: Users and devs may prefer L2s like Base or others over L1 ETH.
BTC dominance spike: In periods of risk-off or macro fear, ETH often underperforms BTC.