Today is the last trading day of the week, and next week the market will start to focus on GDP data. The latest GDPNow data has lowered the U.S. GDP for the first quarter, which is a significant indicator for the trading difficulty in May. Bitcoin's recent performance has been tepid, remaining stable with a declining turnover rate. This indicates that as the weekend approaches, trading frequency decreases, which is good for prices since the bottom positions are not being sold. Without selling pressure in this range, there won't be any significant movements.
In contrast, the altcoin market seems to be blossoming with a small wave; the AI, RWA, and MEME sectors are consistently strong. Especially last night, ONDO collaborated directly with the SEC working group, causing ONDO's market value to break through 10 billion. This is what I've been emphasizing: for altcoins to fluctuate, Bitcoin must stabilize, allowing funds to gradually flow into altcoins. Of course, the selection still needs to consider the background, including projects with stable returns.
At 1 AM tonight, there will be an SEC crypto roundtable meeting, with a focus on ETF-related tokens. Currently, the altcoins applying for ETFs include XRP, LTC, DOGE, SOL, AVAX, SUI, DOT, BNB, ADA, PENGU, APT, MOVE, HBAR, AXL, BONK, TRUMP, TRX.
If the SEC can release more information about altcoin ETFs during tonight's crypto roundtable, it is expected to favor several projects related to ETFs. However, there are already quite a few altcoins applying for ETFs; it depends on which ones the SEC highlights. The stronger options to consider are still LTC, XRP, SOL, and SUI. Those with ETF applications are likely to create a class distinction compared to those without.
The Bitcoin ETF saw an inflow of $440 million last night, with a total inflow of over $2.7 billion in the last three days. This is definitely a sign of sovereign-level funds entering the market. The inflow data for Bitcoin can be seen as a direction for the recent market trend. A large inflow increases the probability of upward fluctuations, while an outflow increases the likelihood of downward movements. This can also serve as a reference signal for taking profits and exiting positions.
In short, the future expectation for Bitcoin is interest rate cuts, including reserve expectations. With these two expectations in place, regardless of the upcoming trading days or the arrival of May, if there are pullback trends, you can gradually accumulate. With expectations in place, there's no need to be afraid. Bitcoin is about cyclicality, not just simple rebounds. If you want to look for rebounds, there’s much more space in altcoins than in Bitcoin. Those who can withstand their temperament should gradually accumulate Bitcoin during pullbacks to reap the cyclical dividends.
The Ethereum ETF also saw an inflow of $63 million last night, with BlackRock contributing $40 million. The large inflow from BlackRock suggests that an independent market for Ethereum may be on the way, especially with the upcoming upgrade in May and the staking of the ETF, which has reportedly been postponed to June 1. If BlackRock joins the staking ETF application process, I believe the SEC will approve it soon. Although the ETF data shows inflows, Ethereum's performance remains mediocre, with ETH/BTC still below 0.019.
Tomorrow is the weekend, and Bitcoin is expected to maintain a fluctuation above 90,000. This is a relatively good signal for altcoins. Real strong altcoin opportunities will start to emerge when Bitcoin remains stable. If the altcoins you hold do not show any gains during this time, you might consider switching to stronger ones. In fact, the altcoin season hasn't truly arrived yet, and varieties like Auntie Tai are still at relatively low levels.
May is approaching, and I have a few risk reminders: May is likely to focus on speculation about interest rate cuts. However, tariff issues may resurface in the first half of the month. Additionally, as the U.S. stock market enters earnings season, many companies will likely lower their forward EPS forecasts. This could lead to a downturn in the U.S. stock market. If Bitcoin drops along with it, the 85,000 mark could be slowly approached, followed closely by speculation on interest rate cuts.
However, the current market is as unpredictable as Trump's words, changing every day. As I said, let's have some expectations. Once we have expectations, we can respond timely when the market moves. I can clearly feel that the main upward wave in the market is getting closer to us, and a big opportunity is about to come. Patience is key, as market uncertainty still exists. It's never too late for right-side trading, and the cyclical buying opportunities will certainly begin when speculation on interest rate cuts starts. That's all for today's sharing; if you think it's good, please give a follow and share!
Brothers, hurry to gather in the chat room!
