1. Current market chaos: Political noise vs. Economic reality.
Trump's 'self-directed' actions exacerbate market volatility: recent market movements are highly influenced by political signals, with policy directions changing multiple times a day, making short-term trading extremely risky. Blindly following political news can easily lead to repeated losses.
The economic fundamentals have not yet improved: although the market has experienced short-term fluctuations due to political expectations, the real economic data (such as employment, inflation, GDP) has not truly strengthened, and there is a lack of support for a trend reversal.
2. Core investment logic: Returning to the essence of the market.
Focus on long-term economic data rather than short-term political noise:
GDP data (to be announced) is a key indicator for judging the true direction of the economy and determines the medium-term market trend.
Inflation and interest rate policies remain core factors affecting global liquidity, requiring close attention to the Federal Reserve's movements.
The intrinsic value of assets (such as BTC's on-chain data, ETH's staking rate, SOL's ecological growth) is more meaningful than short-term price fluctuations.
Avoid emotional trading: The market swings between fear and greed, and investors need to remain calm to avoid being misled by short-term noise.
3. The uniqueness of the crypto space: Opportunities and risks in high volatility.
Opportunities in uncertainty:
If the macro environment deteriorates, cryptocurrencies may become a safe haven for some funds (e.g., some funds flowed into BTC during 2022-2023).
If economic data strengthens, altcoins may experience a phase of catch-up.
Key risk points:
Political factors (such as sudden regulatory policy changes) may trigger a short-term crash.
Tightening liquidity (e.g., the Federal Reserve postponing interest rate cuts) will suppress high-risk asset performance.
4. Strategic advice: Respond steadily and wait for certain signals.
Short-term (1-2 weeks):
Watch for GDP data; if it falls short of expectations, the market may retest support levels (BTC 82,000-85,000, ETH 1,500-1,600).
If the data is strong, pay attention to the trend continuation of mainstream coins (BTC/ETH) after breaking key resistance.
Medium to long-term (1-3 months):
Before the risk of economic recession is lifted, maintain some cash to wait for better allocation opportunities.
DCA into core assets like BTC and ETH at lower prices, avoiding chasing after price spikes.
Summary: Finding real signals amid the noise.
The current market is disturbed by political maneuvering, but economic data is the ultimate arbiter. Investors should:
Reduce reliance on short-term political news and focus on hard indicators like GDP, inflation, and interest rates.
Maintain flexible positions and avoid over-leveraging in uncertainty.
Utilize extreme market sentiment opportunities (e.g., buying in batches during panic sell-offs and gradually taking profits during euphoric surges).
In the end, the market will return to value — only rationality can transcend cycles.
