When the Russia-Ukraine war began in February 2022, it had an immediate and heavy impact on global markets. Stock indices dropped, oil and gas prices soared, and investor confidence took a hit. The same kind of panic and uncertainty could happen again if tensions between Pakistan and India escalate into a full-scale conflict.
What Could Happen If War Breaks Out?
Stock Market Crash: Just like the Russian MOEX index crashed in 2022, we could see sharp declines in Indian and regional stock markets. During the Russia-Ukraine war, India’s Sensex fell nearly 4,000 points in a few days.
Currency Pressure: War fears often push investors toward safe currencies like the U.S. dollar. The Indian Rupee and Pakistani Rupee would likely weaken, making imports more expensive.
Spike in Oil and Commodity Prices: War in South Asia could disrupt shipping routes or trade, especially in agriculture and energy. This would push up prices of food and fuel globally.
Crypto Market Impact: Crypto is seen by some as a “safe haven,” but it’s still very volatile. In early 2022, Bitcoin also dipped sharply with global tensions. If war breaks out, people might sell risky assets—including crypto—and move to cash or gold.
Flight of Capital: Investors usually avoid war zones. There could be large capital outflows from both countries, and big investors might delay or cancel plans.
Conclusion: While it's uncertain how serious things could get, a major conflict between India and Pakistan would almost definitely shake global financial and crypto markets, just like the Russia-Ukraine war did.