The root of many decision-making errors often lies in treating uncertainty as manageable risk;

Risk: A known set of future states, with probabilities for each state that can be estimated;

Uncertainty: The future states themselves or their probability distributions are unknown and cannot be fully characterized by statistical laws.

Decision-makers should treat uncertainty as a design variable, shifting from the 'measure-control' paradigm to the 'discover-adapt' paradigm.

Truly efficient decision-making does not simplify the world to measurable risks, but rather equips oneself with the ability to avoid excessive damage while capturing upside in an uncertain world.