📉 BTC vs. Markets: Decoupling or Dead Cat Bounce?
Bitcoin reclaimed $91.5K this week (+23% from April lows) while stocks and the dollar faltered.
Key drivers:
1. ETF Inflows: Spot BTC ETFs saw $381M inflows on April 22—the highest since January.
2. Macro Hedge**: BTC’s correlation with the S&P 500 dropped to 0.65 as Trump’s Fed pressure and trade wars spooked traditional markets .
3. Gold Rivalry: BTC’s 10% April gain outpaced gold’s 8%, cementing its "digital gold" narrative .
Caution: Low trading volumes and a neutral futures premium (6%) suggest skepticism.
Resistance at $93K is critical breaking it could target $100K+
🃏 Trump Coin Analysis: Political Pump or Rug Pull?
The TRUMP coin is a high-stakes bet tied to Trump’s whims:
- Bull Case:
- Regulatory tailwinds (Trump’s pro-crypto executive order) .
- Adoption by Trump merch stores and integration with Truth.Fi’s crypto ETFs .
- Bear Case:
- 80% supply unlock risk by 2028 .
- Ethical concerns over presidential promotion and insider holdings .
Price Targets: Analysts project $35 to $300 for 2025, but extreme volatility is guaranteed .
Pro Tip: Watch Trump’s May 6 Fed rate-cut demands a dovish pivot could boost crypto sentiment .
🔮 BTC’s April Endgame:
3 Scenarios to Watch
1. Fed vs. Trump: A rate-cut clash could spark volatility. A dovish Fed may propel BTC past $95K
2. ETF Momentum: Sustained inflows could fuel a $150K rally by EOY (per Coin Bureau) .
3. Technical Outlook:
- Bullish: A close above $93K confirms a breakout, targeting $100K
- Bearish: Failure risks a pullback to $88K support
Wildcard: US-China trade talks—any de-escalation could boost risk assets .
💬 Engage with Us!
- Will TRUMP moon post-dinner or dump on unlocks?
- Is BTC’s decoupling from stocks sustainable?
- Comment your BTC price target for May!
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