BTC broke upwards yesterday, eliminating the short liquidity above. The daily chart showed a significant volume, but the price did not break upwards, already exhibiting an overbought state with a shift between long and short positions, selling longs at the bottom to chase longs at the top.
In the short term, I personally still see a pullback. Yesterday, driven by news from Trump, it did not break the strong resistance above, and the volume has been the highest since the rise on the 14th, with 4-hour volume exhausting.
1. If the funds are strong, it is very likely to wait for a decline to digest indicators after a horizontal movement, then retest the 1-hour support at 91600 to start the next upward segment, but such small pullbacks will bring limited upside.
2. After a few days of sideways movement, a quick downward retracement to the position of 88200 will result in an oversold condition, after which funds will regroup to break through the high point of 98800 in one go.
3. Directly breaking below the support at 88200 will reverse the pressure and end this rebound, continuing to oscillate within the bottom range.
The above is my view on the current market situation. I personally lean towards scenario 2, which would allow for lower chips and a higher liquid market. However, regardless of how the market moves, one must always respect the market. In the current environment of ample liquidity but uncertainty on how to open positions, it is easy to become illiquid.
If you don't understand it, don't act. Wait for the right position to strike with certainty.
