Bitcoin demand shows signs of recovery, but the clouds of the bear market have not yet dissipated
The Bitcoin market has recently displayed a complex pattern of long and short battles. The latest data from the on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant indicates that the prolonged adjustment period of more than two months may be nearing its end, and these positive signals suggest that the market's most difficult times may have passed.
In the past 30 days, Bitcoin demand has significantly decreased by 146,000 BTC, in stark contrast to the 311,000 BTC drop recorded on March 27. This indicates that the demand for this major digital asset is still declining, but the pace has slowed.
However, a deeper analysis of key indicators reveals potential risks. The behavior of institutional investors is particularly noteworthy, with the monthly accumulation rate of large holders plummeting from 2.7% at the end of March to 0.4%, hitting a new low since February, and their holdings have actually decreased by about 30,000 coins in the past week.
The inflow of funds into the US Bitcoin spot ETF also shows signs of fatigue. Although a net inflow of $913 million was recorded on April 22, the average daily net inflow remains at a low level of -5,000 to +3,000 coins, far from the daily average of 8,000 coins when it surged to $100,000 at the end of last year. The monthly demand momentum indicator, which measures the alternation between new and old investors, has dropped to 642,000 coins, the lowest level since October of last year.
In terms of market liquidity, there are also constraining factors. The market capitalization of USDT, an important barometer, has only increased by $2.9 billion in the past 60 days, failing to reach the $5 billion threshold necessary to support sustained price increases. This sluggish liquidity growth means that, despite Bitcoin's price briefly breaking $94,000 in the short term, overall market sentiment has not truly turned optimistic.
In summary, it is believed that only when the three key indicators of demand momentum, ETF fund inflows, and stablecoin growth improve simultaneously can a new round of substantial upward momentum be initiated. Therefore, investors are reminded to maintain necessary caution amid optimism.
Do you think the recovery in spot demand can be sustained? When will institutional investors restart large-scale accumulation?
