Author: Nico
Source: Nico X account
Compiled by: Ethan, Odaily Planet Daily
I have been deep in the 'trenches' of cryptocurrency trading for a while, and at this moment, many crypto enthusiasts on X claim that this sector is already 'dead'.
Currently, the trading volume generated by Memecoin trading is no longer at the levels seen months ago, with TRUMP actually reaching a local peak in market share, trading volume, and liquidity attraction. However, at that time, the price of SOL soared to $290, and BTC broke through the $100,000 mark, with the entire bull market in full swing. Subsequently, BTC retreated to the $74,000 to $88,000 range, while SOL formed a local low at $95. But now SOL has strongly rebounded to above $140 (up 46% in 15 days), and BTC has also returned to around $90,000, making it time to reassess the current situation.
Despite the declining price of SOL, generally bearish market sentiment, and fatigue, the data presents a different picture. Let's observe the statistics from April to now:
The pump.fun platform has generated approximately $650 million in trading volume to date, with April's daily trading volume fluctuating between $1 million and $2.7 million, averaging at a high of $1.5 million to $2 million.
After the trading volume decline during the high price period of SOL and the TRUMP craze, trading volume has significantly rebounded in April. With the launch of PumpSwap and an almost seamless migration mechanism, the trading experience around token migration events has been optimized, reflected in the continuous rise in weekly trading volume on the platform.
So far, 9.7 million tokens have been created, with an average daily issuance of 20,000 to 40,000 in April, and 100 to 350 tokens completing 'graduation' daily, maintaining a graduation rate of 0.4% to 0.8%.
The phenomenon of decreasing graduation rates over time is related to declines in users and trading volume, indicating that more small groups are hoarding chips during new token launches in the current 'trenches', followed by mutual dumping. When they are unable to attract sufficient liquidity to maintain token prices, these groups often choose to withdraw their investments early.
Active User Analysis
During the peak period from December 2024 to February 2025, 200,000 to 400,000 users traded Memecoin daily through pump.fun. After that, user numbers continued to decline, remaining below 200,000 for the past two months. Currently, the number of daily active wallets stabilizes around 150,000, with a balanced ratio of new and old users. It is worth noting that most 'trench' traders use a multi-wallet strategy and regularly switch active wallets.
Trading Bot Data Overview
It is well known that Memecoin trading activity is highly concentrated in the top five trading terminals:
@AxiomExchange
@tradewithPhoton
@gmgnai
@TrojanOnSolana
The following are key indicators comparisons (daily dimension):
These platforms collectively contribute over 100,000 daily active users and $100 million in daily trading volume, consistent with market observations.
Platform cumulative fees and assets under management (AUM) estimation (SOL at $140)
Bullx: Cumulative Fees $186 million | AUM 215,000 SOL (approximately $30 million)
Axiom: Cumulative Fees $39 million | AUM estimated to be comparable to Bullx (possibly slightly lower)
Photon: Cumulative Fees $382 million | AUM 539,000 SOL (approximately $82.6 million)
GMGN: Cumulative Fees $66 million | AUM estimated to be at least half of Bullx
It is estimated that the total value of SOL liquidity circulating in the Memecoin sector exceeds $200 million. The next article will delve into the total value of all liquidity pools (LPs) and tokens.
PumpSwap Ecosystem Observation
PumpSwap's current daily trading volume reaches $300 million to $480 million, capturing 9% to 19% of the DEX trading volume on the Solana chain. It is noteworthy that since all new pump.fun tokens are issued and traded on PumpSwap, this indicates that a substantial amount of trading is still occurring on old tokens traded through Raydium/Meteora.
PumpSwap charges a 0.25% trading fee, of which:
0.20% allocated to liquidity providers (LP)
0.05% belongs to the protocol
In its first month, approximately $25 million in fees were generated (daily average of $100,000 to $240,000), with liquidity providers earning $20 million and protocol revenue of $5 million. As PumpSwap's market share continues to expand (currently showing a stable growth trend), this data is expected to keep rising, confirming that traders are increasingly inclined to choose new tokens over old ones.
Insights
The priority trading model for new tokens aligns perfectly with my forecast for the development of the Memecoin sector. Recently, the increased difficulty of survival in the 'trenches' has become an open secret, with remaining players mostly being 'veterans' who have endured the challenges of low SOL prices, shrinking trading volumes, and user losses.
The vitality of the Memecoin sector depends on the injection of new liquidity, initially sourced from seasoned crypto investors who are trapped in losses from mainstream altcoins seeking quick profit opportunities. As the sector expands, retail investors are also beginning to venture into this high-risk, high-reward 'deep water'.
Compared to DeFi tokens that require precise operations and deep understanding of protocols, Memecoins, with their low barriers to entry, high asymmetric returns (i.e., low investment with high return potential), and unlimited creative space for tokenization (people / content / events / memes, etc.), remain the preferred vehicle for speculative activities. Solana firmly holds the position of 'crypto casino' dealer.
If you ask me about potential opportunities in other sectors? Besides Memecoin, Hyperliquid and its ecosystem, as well as fartcoin (because 'hype' is always rising) may hold opportunities. But if someone thinks the 'trenches' are dead— the mission is not yet complete, everything is just beginning.
