The Prelude to a Financial Revolution
In March 2024, former US President Trump signed an executive order that could rewrite the global financial landscape—establishing a national strategic reserve for Bitcoin and other crypto assets. This decision not only marks the first official inclusion of Bitcoin into the national asset reserve system by the US government but may also become a pivotal turning point for cryptocurrencies transitioning from the margins to mainstream finance.
Now, with less than two weeks left in the 60-day evaluation period set by the executive order, the market is holding its breath for the final report from the US Treasury. Once the details are announced, Bitcoin and the entire crypto market may witness a new round of explosive growth.
1. US Bitcoin Strategic Reserve: Why Launch It Now?
1. A New Moat for Dollar Hegemony?
In recent years, the dollar's status as the global reserve currency has faced challenges. After the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the US's freezing of Russian foreign exchange reserves has prompted many countries to accelerate 'de-dollarization,' seeking alternatives such as gold, the renminbi, or even Bitcoin as reserve assets.
If the US establishes a Bitcoin reserve, it may be a strategy of 'offense as defense'—by securing dominance in crypto assets ahead of time, ensuring the dollar system retains its influence in the future digital financial era.
2. Hedging Against Federal Reserve Policy Risks
Trump's executive order specifically mentions that 'any comments questioning the independence of the Federal Reserve have a positive spillover effect on Bitcoin,' suggesting that the US may view Bitcoin as a tool to hedge against currency over-issuance and inflation.
In recent years, the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes and cuts have intensified market volatility, while Bitcoin's fixed supply (21 million coins) makes it a natural 'anti-inflation asset.' If the US government holds Bitcoin, it would effectively acknowledge its value storage function at the national level.
3. Geopolitics and Financial Games
Countries such as China and Russia have accelerated their layout in the central bank digital currency (CBDC) field, while the US has chosen a different path by directly betting on Bitcoin, possibly aiming to seize the rule-making power in the crypto world. Once the US becomes one of the largest holders of Bitcoin globally, its policy influence in the crypto market will be unshakeable.
2. Market Impact: How Will the 'Nationalization' of Bitcoin Change the Game?
1. Short-term: Could Become a Bull Market 'Nuclear Catalyst'
After the announcement of Trump's Bitcoin strategic reserve executive order, although the market reacted calmly in the short term, industry insiders view it as a long-term positive. If the US Treasury report confirms the feasibility of the Bitcoin reserve plan, the market may react as follows:
· Increased Institutional FOMO (Fear of Missing Out): Wall Street capital may accelerate entry, pushing prices to break historical highs.
· Sovereign Funds Following Suit: Other countries may consider imitating, further boosting demand.
· Softer Regulatory Attitudes: The SEC may be forced to reassess the approval standards for Bitcoin ETFs and other products.
2. Long-term: Bitcoin's Positioning as 'Gold 2.0' Consolidated
If the US incorporates Bitcoin into its reserves, its attribute will shift from 'high-risk speculative asset' to 'national strategic asset,' similar to the positioning of gold in the 20th century. This will bring about:
· Lower Volatility: Long-term holding by sovereign funds may reduce market selling pressure.
· Integration into the Mainstream Financial System: Traditional institutions such as banks and pension funds may incorporate Bitcoin into their portfolios.
· Enhanced Status of Miners: The US may support the domestic mining industry through policy, strengthening control over blockchain networks.
3. Potential Risks: Centralization and Regulatory Contradictions
The core spirit of Bitcoin is decentralization, and the national reserve plan may trigger the following controversies:
· Will the US government intervene in the Bitcoin network? (e.g., by controlling mining pools or nodes)
· Will other tokens (like Ethereum) be included in the reserve?
· How to Balance Crypto Innovation and Financial Stability?
3. Global Reactions: Who is Following? Who is Opposing?
1. Supporters: El Salvador May No Longer Be Alone
In 2021, El Salvador became the first country in the world to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender, but its solitary stance has put it under immense pressure. If the US joins, it may encourage more allies (such as Japan and Singapore) to explore similar policies.
2. Opponents: Warnings from the European Central Bank
European Central Bank President Lagarde has repeatedly criticized Bitcoin as 'having no intrinsic value,' and the EU is more inclined to promote a digital euro. The US's actions may exacerbate financial policy divergences across the Atlantic.
3. China: Watch and Wait or Adjust Responses?
Although China has banned Bitcoin trading, Hong Kong is gradually opening up the crypto market. If the US successfully mainstreams Bitcoin, China may not rule out adjusting its strategy to participate in the competition.
4. Future Outlook: Is the 'National Era' of Bitcoin Coming?
Regardless of the final details of the US Bitcoin reserve plan, this event has sent a clear signal: cryptocurrencies are no longer just toys for geeks and speculators, but a new battlefield for the financial strategies of major powers.
Historic Two-Week Countdown
In the coming weeks, the US Treasury's report will become the focus of the crypto market and even the global financial system. Regardless of the outcome, the concept of 'national Bitcoin' has been ignited, and this experiment may redefine the way wealth is stored in the 21st century.
For investors, the only certainty is: we are standing at the beginning of a new era.