The recent signals of tariff relief from the Trump administration are essentially a stopgap measure forced by economic and political pressure in the United States, and the strategic intent to curb China's development has not changed. Behind this policy shift lies a complex game of logic:

1. The appearance and motivation of tariff relief

Recently, Trump has repeatedly stated that he will 'significantly reduce' the 145% tariff on China, hinting that an agreement may be reached in 3-4 weeks. This move directly stems from high domestic inflation, supply chain disruptions, and pressure from the midterm elections:

• Economic difficulties: The U.S. consumer price index rose by 2.9% due to tariffs, with prices of clothing and other goods soaring by 46%, resulting in annual losses of over $5,400 for low-income families; rare earth controls impact the military industry supply chain, causing production utilization rates in companies like Tesla to plummet.

• Election considerations: Exports to China from agricultural states have plummeted by 70%, and Trump's approval ratings have dropped by 14 percentage points due to tariff issues, making it urgent to regain votes in swing states through tax cuts.

2. The deep continuation of the strategy to contain China

Despite the loosening of tariffs, the logic of U.S. containment against China remains unchanged:

• Bundled pressure: Trump proposed a 'graded taxation' plan, intending to maintain a 100% tariff on strategic goods while linking tariffs to issues like TikTok divestiture and technological blockade.

• Systematic layout: Through the memorandum of the (America First Trade Policy), bundling tariffs with investment restrictions and export controls, constructing a 'composite punch' to contain China; key areas like chips and new energy remain locked in as focal points for suppression.

3. China's strategic resolve and countermeasures

China responds with a strategy of 'combining talks with actions':

• Precise countermeasures: Raising tariffs on U.S. soybeans and aircraft to 125%, while export controls on rare earths directly hit the soft underbelly of the U.S. military industry, and accelerating the domestic production of semiconductors (with self-sufficiency exceeding 50%).

• Institutional resilience: Deepening regional cooperation through RCEP, reducing trade dependency on the U.S. from 19% to 12%, with domestic demand accounting for 75%, weakening the deterrent effect of tariffs.

Conclusion

Trump's tariff relief is merely a tactical adjustment, and his 'rules-based tariff' strategy still focuses on reshaping U.S. hegemony. The China-U.S. game has entered a new normal of 'talk while fighting,' and China, leveraging its market depth and the resilience of its supply chain, is transforming the pressures of the trade war into momentum for deepening reform and opening up. History will ultimately prove that unilateral bullying cannot stop the formation of a multipolar order; only equal dialogue can break the zero-sum dilemma.#中美贸易关系

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