1. Market appearance: Structural differentiation under the rebound frenzy
Although US stocks and Bitcoin rebounded strongly after a brief decline (Bitcoin rose from a low of $91,400), the market shows a clear "ice and fire" characteristic:
Head assets have a capital-absorbing effect: The S&P 500 index and Bitcoin both gained over 3% in a single day, with funds continuously flowing into Nasdaq leading stocks and BTC spot ETFs;
Liquidity-sensitive assets are under pressure: The Russell 2000 index only rose slightly by 0.8%, and the market capitalization of altcoins continues to shrink to 26.5% (down 12% from the beginning of the year);
Market sentiment indicators diverge: The fear and greed index has risen to the neutral range of 30, but the increase in derivatives positions is less than 5%, indicating that major funds are still in a wait-and-see attitude.
This differentiation confirms the market essence of "liquidity stratification"—before the Federal Reserve substantively shifts towards easing, funds are more inclined to allocate to core assets with strong anti-volatility.
2. Triple deconstruction of the rebound driving force
Technical repair demand
The market's excessive decline the day before formed a short-term value gap, triggering a quantitative trading program to automatically buy after the Bitcoin RSI indicator reached the oversold area of 28, resulting in a mechanical rebound.Event-driven game
Trump's statement about "suspending the increase of tariffs on China," combined with rumors of Russia-Ukraine negotiations, briefly boosted risk appetite. However, it is important to note:
Tariff policy adjustments require congressional authorization, and the president's executive order has limited space;
The Russia-Ukraine battlefield remains in a stalemate phase, and a substantive ceasefire agreement has yet to show signs of hope.
Earnings season expectation management
The median earnings expectation for tech giants in the second quarter has been raised to 18.7%, but beware of the "expectation realization is bearish" effect. Historical data shows that during earnings season, Bitcoin and the Nasdaq have a correlation as high as 0.82.