This market situation has directly rendered my CPU useless.
The tariffs haven't been resolved, the interest rate cuts haven't arrived, and the issue of the massive national debt in the U.S. is something I feel will lead to at least one more wave of correction before going back up. I've said before that the reversal is getting closer, with a prediction around May 8th; damn it, it came early and ruined everything.
Yesterday, Trump finally softened his stance, kneeling to the village chief, calling him 'dad', and admitting defeat to Powell, calling him 'godfather'. I've said it before, in the tariff war, the one who ends up kneeling will definitely be Trump; he really doesn't understand our king, who is the real king.
Regarding the tariff negotiations, or rather, the meeting of the two kings, there should be progress in May. The U.S. has a huge debt to deal with, constantly changing orders and making a fuss, simply wanting to gain more leverage to fill their own pockets.
In the later stages, with the Federal Reserve expected to cut interest rates in June and the easing of tariffs, Trump admitting defeat should all be positive news. I've mentioned that the reversal is getting closer; if there’s another significant correction this time, we should focus on going long later.
Currently, from the daily chart pattern, BTC has broken through, the upward trend line, and crossed the bull-bear boundary, indicating a reversal in the market. The MACD is entering upward, showing momentum for further increases. From past patterns, the operators have completed their bottom-fishing layout below 76,000, and the recent two days of upward movement have indeed seen increased volume and main funds entering the market.
However, one point: the expected interest rate cut hasn't come yet, and the explosive rise is somewhat bizarre, making me consider that the operators might be engaging in a pump-and-dump scheme. I personally suggest that, at the current price, at least halve the positions of bottom-fished coins. At the very least, for spot buying, I personally judge that, although the upper boundary of the trading range has been broken and 89,000 pressure has turned into support, I do not recommend entering spot positions at this level.
The operators' rise is too strange; the trend line hasn't even had a single pullback, which means that 83,500 might be the level we need to reconsider. For now, let's stabilize; especially in times like these, we need to remain calm. The upper pressure is around 95,000, and the lower support is around 83,500.
On the hourly chart, the MACD has a death cross, indicating a demand for correction, with high volume pushing up, clearing liquidity, and then a volume decline. I suggest shorting at 93,000, with a stop loss at 94,000 and taking profit near 90,000.
On the weekly chart, the MACD has a golden cross, indicating that a reversal pattern is emerging in the major trend; I suggest mainly focusing on going long after a pullback in the future.
If you are short and stuck, hold on for two days; after it drops, you can either cut losses to break even or take a gamble, setting the stop loss price 1,000 points above the opening price.