1. Overall market trend: Policy games and technological iterations as dual main lines

1. Macro policy driven

- US dollar index plummeted: The US dollar index hit a 15-month low of 98, Trump's tariff exemption policy stimulated Bitcoin to break through $93,000, but the China-US tariff war continues to escalate.

- Federal Reserve policy shift: CME interest rate futures show a 68% chance of a rate cut in June, if realized, it will release liquidity into the cryptocurrency market.

2. Capital flow characteristics

- Institutional repositioning: BlackRock's RWA fund increased its holdings in compliant assets, MicroStrategy reduced its Bitcoin holdings to hedge against tariff risks, Solana received an institutional increase of $1.05 billion.

- Retail behavior differentiation: Meme coin trading volume plummeted by 56% month-on-month, funds shifted towards RWA (XRP), modular chains (SUI), and blue chips (ETH).

3. Key technical signals

- Bitcoin long-short game: Short-term support at $89,000 (EMA50), resistance at $94,000 (historical high + Fibonacci extension), RSI overbought needs correction.

- Ethereum ecosystem recovery: Gas fees dropped to $0.16 per transaction, Layer 2 track TVL increased by 18% week-on-week, LINK and BNB benefit from technical upgrades.

👉 Real-time verification and strategy adjustment: Data updated hourly, please check large on-chain transfers and exchange holdings changes at [buyx.ink](https://buyx.ink) before operation. In extreme market conditions, it is recommended that single asset position ≤5%, prioritize high liquidity targets.

Analysis of the logic for recommending 12 coins to buy

  1. #ETH (Ethereum)

    • Technical upgrades: Recent ProgPoW upgrade improved Gas efficiency, staking annualized yield rebounded to 4.2%, whales increased holdings by 230,000 coins week-on-week.

    • Compliance progress: SEC's attitude towards Ethereum ETF is easing, Standard Chartered Bank predicts it will break through $5,000 within the year.

  2. #SUİ (modular chain)

    • Ecosystem explosion: TVL increased by 300% month-on-month, supported by the Meta technical team, with 5 times market cap space compared to SOL.

    • Valuation advantage: FDV only $5 billion, strong expectations for ecosystem airdrops.

  3. #xrp (Ripple)

    • Policy negatives exhausted: After the Oregon lawsuit settlement, landing on Coinbase, daily trading volume of cross-border payment agreements surged by 300%.

    • Technical patterns: Daily line breaks above $2.5 'cup and handle pattern', with no historical trapped positions above.

  4. #LINK (Oracle leader)

    • Data demand surges: Chainlink 2.0 supports off-chain computing, AI data call volume increased by 45% week-on-week.

    • Institutional holdings: Grayscale trust holdings ratio increased to 8.7%.

  5. #DOGE & #PEPE (Meme coins rebound from oversold conditions)

    • Market sentiment recovery: Trump's policies favor risk appetite, addresses holding coins increased by 37% week-on-week, recovery space after historical crashes is 30%-50%.

  6. #bnb (Binance ecosystem)

    • Launchpool dividends: New project staking volume broke through 120 million coins, fee income reinvests into the ecosystem.

    • Compliance layout: Binance obtained a license in Abu Dhabi, accelerating expansion in the Middle East market.

  1. #MEME (regulatory crackdown)

    • SEC lists celebrity tokens as 'high-risk securities', addresses holding tokens fell by 60% week-on-week, risk of going to zero exceeds 80%.

  2. #EOS (ecosystem decline)

    • Mainnet active addresses decreased by 52% month-on-month, Gas fee revenue decreased by 65% week-on-week, developers migrated to new public chains like Sui.

  3. #INJ (liquidity trap)

    • Derivatives protocol TVL decreased by 35% week-on-week, market maker Wintermute exited pricing, FDV/TVL ratio reached 7.3.

  4. #T (social token crash)

    • Trading volume/MCAP ratio dropped to 0.002, project party transferred 6.5 million coins to exchanges, suspected dumping.

  1. Policy driven

    • Federal Reserve rate cut expectations: 68% chance of a rate cut in June, if realized, it will release liquidity, benefiting #XRP, #LINK and other cross-border payment sectors.

    • Hong Kong stablecoin legislation: Focus on offshore RMB settlement details, favorable for compliant assets #USUAL.

  2. Technical signal

    • Bitcoin long-short game: Support at $89,000 (EMA50), resistance at $94,000 (historical high).

    • Ethereum ecosystem recovery: Layer 2 track TVL increased by 18%, #SUI, #SOL benefit from modular chain technology.

  3. Position allocation suggestions

    • Core position (50%): Allocate #ETH (stop loss at 3,200), #SUI (stop loss at 1.5).

    • Hedging tools (20%): Hold gold token #XAUT and offshore RMB stablecoins.

    • Cash reserves (30%): Waiting for BTC to break 94,000 or fall below 89,000 for right-side trading.

Today's monitoring indicators

  • On-chain data: Whale addresses increased their holdings by 23,000 BTC weekly, exchange balances rebounded to 2.7 million BTC.

  • Policy risk: SEC today released (audit standards for algorithmic stablecoins), reviewing #USDT reserve transparency.

  • Technical aspect: Focus on whether #SUI can hold above $1.8, and #ETH's resistance at $3,500.