Trump was elected with a speech of total support for the advancement of cryptocurrencies, but doubts remain about economic policy.
Despite the increase in risk aversion, the moment of volatility can generate opportunities for investors.
The first months of the presidency of the United States, Donald Trump, have been marked by the intensification of a trade war. Initially, Trump announced a series of tariffs on the import of products, but has since backed down and opened negotiations. Despite this, the American president further shakes the relationship with China, with almost daily announcements of new measures that either tighten the cord or loosen it.
The result of this is an increase in uncertainties in global markets. What will the impacts be on the economy, which countries should be harmed or benefited, will there be a global recession? These are some questions that, for now, remain unanswered.
In the universe of digital assets, the debate is also open. Donald Trump was elected with a speech of total support for the advancement of cryptocurrencies – he even launched his own memecoin. Despite the rhetoric, there are still doubts about what the impacts of Trump's economic policy will be on cryptocurrencies.
"Trump's pro-crypto speech was exciting. But his actions — especially in foreign trade — have done the opposite of what the market needs. It's a contradiction: the same government that promises monetary freedom is reigniting protectionism and instability. Crypto suffers in the short term because it is still hit along with risk assets. But in the medium term, this chaos only reinforces the need for assets that do not depend on any government," comments Fabrício Tota, Vice President of New Business at Mercado Bitcoin.
Elaine Borges, a professor of Finance at USP, understands that the situation is not favorable for risk assets, but that cryptocurrencies may still benefit from the scenario. "Generally, in these moments of uncertainty, investors tend to turn to safer investments. This would be detrimental to markets with more volatility, such as the cryptocurrency market. At the same time, there is also a view that Bitcoin, for example, would be a safe haven, like gold. This is because it is counter-cyclical, inflation is controlled because the supply of Bitcoin is limited and it is not tied to any monetary policy," she says.
The professor also believes that cryptocurrencies can be attractive for global trade. "Cryptocurrencies have been widely used as a means of payment because they are decentralized, transparent, and a way of doing business between countries without intermediaries. So, in a trade war, this may be reinforced. It could be an easy way for countries to negotiate with each other, especially with geopolitical tensions," Elaine adds.
Behavior of Bitcoin Futures
An example that can well illustrate this scenario is the behavior of Bitcoin Futures in the first quarter of 2025, where it is possible to observe an increase in interest in the asset, but depreciation. According to a survey by DataWise+, a B3 and Neoway solution, Bitcoin Futures had a trading volume of R$ 1.6 trillion in the period, an increase of 33% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024.
At the same time, there was a 15% depreciation in Bitcoin Futures in the first three months of this year.
Cryptocurrencies: opportunities amidst chaos
Despite the increase in risk aversion, the moment of volatility can create opportunities for investors accustomed to strong emotions, such as those who operate in day trading, for example. "Volatility is frightening, but for those who like short trades, it's paradise: it creates entry opportunities, moves the market, and separates noise from fundamentals," Tota asserts.
Elaine understands that, in the event of a global economic crisis, cryptocurrencies may generate interest from investors as an alternative to traditional currencies. "In a trade war, with inflation, a banking crisis, and uncertain geopolitics, the traditional financial system is generally questioned, especially by younger people. The concern about the devaluation of money may also generate more flow for the adoption of cryptocurrencies," she analyzes.
According to Fabrício Tota, the most important thing is that the investor keeps in mind that the aspects that give structure to the digital asset market are more relevant than the announcements of each day. "The biggest risk is believing that just because the political speech has changed, the market has changed along with it. It hasn't changed. Neither has the technology. We have a still pressured global economy, high interest rates, geopolitical uncertainties, and now an extra element: uncoordinated tariffs that pressure inflation and reduce liquidity," says the executive.
Therefore, in times of uncertainty, it is essential for the investor to have a solid knowledge base about the financial market to act more on conviction and less under pressure. "Crypto is still seen as a risky asset — and, in this environment, that matters. Anyone wanting to be in this market needs to have a well-defined strategy.
