The current market for Bitcoin has actually initially satisfied the fundamentals for a market reversal.

Friends who have been following me for a while know that since I publicly called for a short on February 5, I have been an unyielding bear.

So why do I say that BTC has already formed the basic fundamentals for an initial market reversal? Focus on the following points:

Bitcoin has gradually detached from the movements of U.S. stocks since the day before yesterday, starting to move independently. The Federal Reserve has not cut interest rates, and in a market without liquidity, Bitcoin can move independently only if the main force forcibly controls the market to push it up or if there is new liquidity injected.

It is obvious that this does not align with the idea of the main force forcibly controlling the market. Anyone who has tried knows this.

First, when the main force goes for a strong long or short position, it will inevitably be accompanied by news for a quick rise or drop to complete the harvest. Currently, the market is seeing declines in U.S. stocks, the U.S. dollar index, and U.S. bonds. The tariffs are also unclear. If the main force forcibly raises the market to short heavily, the capital cost required is extremely high, and they could easily get trapped themselves.

Second, on-chain data shows that recent BTC inflows are mainly concentrated in ETF inflows. ETFs are one of the ways for retail investors to enter the market; in other words, this batch of funds does not belong to the hot money of the crypto circle, but rather to cold money from outside the circle. On-chain data also shows that multiple whales have been in a selling state over the past three days. Other institutions, except MicroStrategy, have not made large purchases, which does not align with the behavior of large institutions concentrating on pushing the market up.

Third, anyone with clear eyes knows that Trump's current move is likely aimed at using tariff policies to crash U.S. stocks, weaken the dollar, and force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. From another angle, if Trump wins and the Federal Reserve intervenes to save the market, they must cut interest rates, which is good news! If the Federal Reserve wins, Trump may cancel tariffs, and U.S. stocks will rise again, which will also boost the crypto market. So regardless of who wins or loses, there is potential good news for BTC.

Fourth, as U.S. stocks, the U.S. dollar index, and U.S. bonds decline, risk-averse funds will inevitably seek new investment targets, which makes it reasonable to divert funds from gold and Bitcoin. It's not that Bitcoin can possess the risk-averse property of gold, but an 85,000 Bitcoin is not necessarily worse than crashing U.S. stocks. As the saying goes, 'Choose the lesser of two evils,' and the inflow of ETF funds plus Bitcoin's detachment from U.S. stocks further supports this idea.

Fifth: From a technical perspective, 89,200 is already a key position for the divergence of bulls and bears. Once it breaks and stabilizes, it indicates that the daily downtrend has officially been broken, consistent with a reversal pattern.

Sixth: If we are not deceiving ourselves, everyone is very clear that the biggest bearish sentiment has actually been exhausted. Next, it will be hard to break the previous low if there are no black swan events. Pay attention to around 81,000. If it breaks, enter the 765-785 range without hesitation. As for those talking about 60,000 or 50,000, I won't comment; my perspective is limited and I really can't see it!

Seventh: The above views are only aimed at BTC, not at altcoins! The risk-averse funds in the U.S. stock and bond markets cannot replace the liquidity released by the Federal Reserve; altcoins' overall rise still needs to wait.

Eighth: You can express different opinions, but don't start by spitting insults; that will only make you appear extremely childish and ignorant.

Next, the main theme for BTC will shift from: shorting on highs to: going long on lows!