Gold has shown an accelerating trend in recent days, strongly breaking through the 3400 mark, with an increase of over 30% since January this year.
It can be seen that currently, global funds are primarily focused on safety, and the only physical asset with strong safe-haven attributes is gold.
Although at this stage, no one can predict the peak of gold, the funds that previously flowed into gold were mainly for safe-haven purposes, and there has recently been a trend of retail investors investing in gold at high levels.
It is worth mentioning that Bitcoin, known as 'digital gold,' has been steadily rising recently and broke through $88,000 yesterday. Since the low of $74,500 on April 7, the increase is nearly 20%.
In recent days, despite the downward trend in the US stock market, Bitcoin still rose against the trend, showing an initial trend of decoupling from the US stock market.
So, this year, will the cryptocurrencies that have been in a downward trend for several months welcome a reversal and be favored by funds with nowhere to go or overflow, as a safe-haven target?
First of all, last year, when I officially entered the cryptocurrency market, it was when Bitcoin was promoted through US stock ETFs and Hong Kong's strong layout in Web3; with the US stock market about to enter a cyclical bear market, I saw cryptocurrencies as a new pool of dollar liquidity, welcoming a large influx of funds.
At the same time, during the US interest rate hike cycle, the trend of the A-share market is counter-cyclical. When the US stock market enters a downward cycle, one should firmly hold both A-shares and cryptocurrencies as two carriages.
For cryptocurrencies to meet the above conditions, they must maintain independence and decouple from the US stock market, unaffected by its cyclical downward trend. Unfortunately, since the peak of the US stock market, Bitcoin has not shown a divergence trend from the US stock market.
Only in recent days, as this overly singular safe-haven asset, gold, was pushed to a high position, Bitcoin began to rise against the trend, slightly revealing a bit of deviation from the momentum of the US stock market.
However, against the backdrop of gold's fierce rise, Bitcoin's initial decoupling trend at this time seems a bit like forcing a duck onto a shelf; it has been pushed to the forefront for necessary purposes; fundamentally, it does not possess a strongly consensus-based safe-haven attribute.
The trend has already occurred and should not be forced with personal judgment; it is essential to always understand one's starting point while observing or following the trend.
It should be clear that, although Bitcoin currently shows safe-haven attributes and has signs of further increases, the extent of the dollar's decline may still be far from enough to drive a full recovery in the crypto market, which still needs to explore further downward to force more dollar liquidity to flow into the crypto space.
Therefore, hoping for a full recovery in the crypto market still requires further observation.
