#加密市场反弹

1. Core Conclusions Overview

• Bitcoin returns above $87,000, with a 24-hour increase of approximately 4%, recovering more than half of this month's decline.  

• Ethereum breaks through $1,650, reaching a daily high that is the highest in nearly three weeks. 

• Altcoins overall outperform the market: Stacks (STX) rises by up to +20% in a single day, while Solana (SOL), BNB, and XRP also record increases in the range of 5–8%; the meme sector shows improved sentiment.   

• The U.S. Dollar Index falls below 99, raising concerns that Trump's actions against Powell may undermine the Federal Reserve's independence, providing a macro tailwind for crypto assets.  

• Weekly net inflow of spot BTC ETF shrinks to a year-to-date low, but the price rebound triggers expectations of passive accumulation. 

• On-chain activity has yet to fully recover with the price: The CMC Altcoin Season Index is only 17, indicating that the "long positions" are still concentrated in top assets. 

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2. Three Major Drivers Behind the Rebound

1. Sudden Weakness of the U.S. Dollar

• Both Reuters and Bloomberg report that Trump's team is exploring legal avenues to remove Powell from office, which undermines market confidence in the Federal Reserve's independence, pushing the dollar to a three-year low.  

• After the dollar index falls below 99, gold and bitcoin rise simultaneously, highlighting the dual attributes of "safe haven + de-dollarization." 

2. Technical "Key Moving Average" Resonance

• Bitcoin breaks out after finding support at the 50-day moving average (approximately $82,900) three times, leading to short positions being liquidated for over 8,000 BTC contracts within the day. 

• Ethereum follows BTC's rebound and successfully holds above the 200-day moving average ($1,600), with the technical indicator RSI returning to 55 (neutral to strong). 

3. Capital and Sentiment

• Although last week's net inflow of spot ETF was only $15.8 million, the lowest since 2025, the price rebound triggers arbitrage and market-making buybacks, amplifying spot buying pressure. 

• Thin liquidity during the holiday exacerbates one-sided volatility, with short position liquidations in the futures market exceeding $140 million, further pushing up spot prices.