1. Overall market trend: Regulatory tightening and liquidity exhaustion

  1. Macroeconomic policy suppression
    The US SEC has postponed the approval of Bitcoin ETF to June, combined with the repeated tariff policies of Trump (maintaining 125% tariffs on Chinese goods), market volatility has reached a new high for the year. The total global cryptocurrency market capitalization shrinks to $2.66 trillion, down 41% from the 2024 peak. Bitcoin's market cap ratio rises to 59.1%, reflecting a rapid withdrawal of funds from altcoins.

  2. Capital flow characteristics

    • Institutional risk aversion preference: BlackRock's RWA fund sees a net inflow of $120 million in a single day, Grayscale's GBTC remains at a discount, MicroStrategy reduces Bitcoin holdings to hedge risks.

    • Liquidity trap: Spot trading volume on centralized exchanges drops 16.3% month-on-month, Solana's on-chain DEX trading volume accounts for 39.6%, but TVL evaporates by $48.9 billion.

  3. Key technical signals

    • Bitcoin long-short game: Short-term support level at $79,800 (lower bound of CME futures gap), if lost, it may trigger a $4.86 billion long liquidation.

    • Ethereum ecosystem crisis: Gas fee drops to $0.168 per transaction (a five-year low), ETH/BTC exchange rate hits a two-year low, developers accelerate migration to new public chains like Sui.

👉 Real-time verification and strategy adjustment: Data updated hourly, please check large on-chain transfers and exchange holdings changes at buyx.ink before operation. It is recommended that single token positions be ≤3% in extreme market conditions, prioritizing high liquidity targets.

2. Recommended buy token logic analysis

#usual : RWA track compliance benchmark

  • Policy dividends: The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has approved its access to the offshore RMB settlement system, and the tokenized US Treasury scale exceeds $5 billion, showing significant compliance advantages.

  • Technical breakthrough: Uses zero-knowledge proof to optimize audit processes, trading volume increases 180% weekly, no historical entrapment above $2.5.

  • Institutional holdings: BlackRock's RWA fund holding ratio rises to 15%, staking annual yield at 22%, FDV/TVL ratio only 0.7 (industry average 1.2).

3. Risk warning for suggested sell tokens

  1. Regulatory crackdown type

    • #TRUMP : Meme coins face SEC compliance review of 'celebrity tokens', number of holding addresses drops 60% over weeks, risk of going to zero exceeds 80%.

    • #BTC : Short-term holder cost concentrated at $83,000-$85,000, miner selling pressure intensifies (hash rate decreases by 7% week-on-week).

  2. Liquidity trap type

    • #crv : Curve DAO TVL drops 35% weekly, market maker Wintermute exits quotes, project team transfers 6.5 million tokens.

    • #Aıdoge : Meme coin trading volume/MCAP ratio drops to 0.002, a dense entrapment level exists at $0.000002 above.

  3. Ecological decline type

    • #ANIME: NFT ecosystem daily active users fall below 50,000, gas fee income drops 65% weekly, project team suspected of selling off.

    • #ANKR: Cross-chain bridge active addresses drop 52% monthly, core developers migrate to Berachain ecosystem.

4. Operational strategy and risk control matrix

  1. Position allocation recommendations

    • Core position (50%): Allocate #USUAL (stop-loss at $2.2), focus on compliance and technology dual-driven tracks.

    • Hedging tool (20%): Hold gold token #XAUT (24.15% year-to-date increase) to respond to black swan events.

    • Cash reserve (30%): Wait for Bitcoin to clearly break above $83,000 or drop below $78,000 for right-side trading.

  2. Key node response

    • Hong Kong stablecoin regulatory details: If offshore RMB stablecoins are allowed to comply, significantly increase holdings of #USUAL.

    • Federal Reserve interest rate decision: If the probability of a rate cut exceeds 75%, increase holdings in the RWA track; if rates are maintained, reduce high-leverage assets.

5. Today's monitoring indicators

  • On-chain data: Whale addresses (holding 100+ BTC) reduce holdings by 15,000 in the past week, exchange balances recover to 2.7 million coins.

  • Policy risk: SEC will release (algorithmic stablecoin audit standards) at 14:00 EST, focusing on #USDT reserve transparency.

  • Technical signal: Pay attention to whether #USUAL can hold above the $2.5 Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level, and the Bitcoin $79,800 chip concentration zone.

Risk warning: Breakdown of US-China tariff negotiations, increased selling pressure from Bitcoin miners, risk of algorithmic stablecoin decoupling.