4/20 Welcome to Commander C's today's commentary channel

1/3 #WCT

I. Technical Analysis

1. The close did not stabilize above the previous high, breakout failed

2. Did not break below the bearish MBS, combined with the previous trend, there is a high probability of forming a consolidation range

3. Still in an uptrend, the uptrend line has not been broken, currently just returning from an overbought state

4. Price rises, open interest rises; price drops sharply, open interest drops rapidly; the futures market is dominated by bulls

II. Data Analysis:

1. High leverage and liquidity risk:

Position/Market Value ≈ 111.4%: Derivative leverage is extremely high, price fluctuations can be amplified, need to be cautious of flash crashes or short squeezes.

Surge in trading volume: Short-term funds drive enthusiasm, but if subsequent trading volume drops sharply, it may lead to liquidity exhaustion.

2. Divergence in long and short positions:

Retail investors generally bearish (long-short ratio < 0.5): If the price rebounds, it may trigger concentrated short covering, forming a short squeeze.

Large holders' positions are neutral to bearish: The number ratio and position ratio diverge, reflecting the complexity of institutional strategies (such as hedging or cross-platform arbitrage).

3. Pressure from negative funding rates:

Accumulation of short position costs; if the price stabilizes, they may be forced to close positions, pushing prices up.

III. Trading Strategy:

Short: Break below MBS, short to the uptrend line

Long: If it does not break below MBS, go long at the bottom, treat it as a consolidation range to trade, buy low sell high, set stop loss below MBS