Sometimes it's useful to take a step back. Last week, I deliberately stepped away from crypto — engaged in everyday activities, spent time with family and friends. I set aside charts, closed news feeds… and strangely enough, nothing happened. My portfolio remained down by 35–40%, just as it was.
Returning to analysis, I decided to look a bit broader — at global processes. And here's what I noticed: there is uncertainty in the world right now. This is especially noticeable here in Europe, where I live and am connected to the automotive industry. Factory directors cannot make forecasts — US politics, particularly Trump's actions, are too changeable. And when there is no certainty, there are no orders. And without orders, there is no production, no cars. 🚗❌
Meanwhile, China is actively starting a dialogue with the European Union: they are discussing reducing or completely abolishing tariffs on cars. If they reach an agreement, a powerful cash flow will begin between China and the EU. But the USA risks being left out if it doesn't join the game. Therefore, if Trump really wants to restore the trust of investors and businesses, he urgently needs to:
• Establish relations with China and reconsider tariff policies.
• Stop dragging his feet on fulfilling promises, especially in the context of the war in Ukraine.
• Organize the bond market. 💼📉
Only after that will capital begin to return to the economy.
And what about crypto? Here it’s much simpler… and sadder. I no longer expect any 'alt season'. And local pumps are also not expected in the near future. If anything happens, it will be short movements of +5–10% from the average monthly rate. Without patterns, without signals — just rare gasps of air in a prolonged bear dive. 🐻📉
Investors are currently avoiding risky assets, and crypto is at the top of this list. Until the world regains stability, big money won't come here. This means we are in for a lull. A deep and prolonged one. 🕳️
If you have your own thoughts on this matter, I would be glad to read them in the comments.
I wish everyone a good spring mood, and since we are all on the exchange - profitable trades😉💰
