According to recent market dynamics and multidimensional data analysis, Bitcoin (BTC) currently presents a pattern of both oscillation and structural opportunities. The specific trend analysis is as follows:

1. Short-term trend: Key interval game and technical signals

1. Price range oscillation

BTC has recently tested support and resistance repeatedly within the range of $83,000 - $87,900. The 4-hour EMA7 moving average and Fibonacci 0.618 retracement level ($83,200) form short-term support, while the Bollinger Band middle track and historical selling pressure concentrated area ($86,500 - $87,900) constitute upward pressure. If it breaks through $87,900, it may challenge the psychological barrier of $90,000; if it falls below $83,000, attention should be paid to strong support at $78,000.

2. Technical indicator divergence

MACD: 4-hour level histogram is shrinking, and the DIF and DEA lines are approaching a golden cross, indicating accumulation of short-term rebound momentum.

RSI: The daily RSI has risen to the neutral zone of 50, market sentiment has recovered from oversold conditions, but has not yet entered a strong zone.

On-chain data: Long-term holders (LTH) UTXO ratio reaches historical high, selling pressure mainly comes from short-term speculators, showing market divergence.

2. Core driving factors: Tug-of-war between policy and capital flow

1. Macroeconomic policy game

Federal Reserve Policy: Delayed interest rate cut expectations or inflation rebound may suppress liquidity, but the probability of a 50 basis point cut in June still exceeds 80%. If realized, it could become a short-term catalyst.

Trump administration policy: Bitcoin reserve plan and tax optimization proposals boost institutional confidence, but escalated tariff policies may trigger single-day fluctuations of over 10%.

2. Capital flow differentiation

Institution behavior: Grayscale holdings remain stable, MicroStrategy continues to increase holdings through bond financing, but ETFs have recently seen net outflows (e.g., 40,000 BTC outflow in February), indicating short-term risk aversion.

Whale movements: The number of addresses holding over 1000 BTC has increased against the trend, suspected to be building a defense line around $74,000, with the medium to long-term accumulation trend unchanged.

3. Strategy recommendations

1. Long and short path simulation

Optimistic scenario: After stabilizing above $87,900, with corresponding volume, it is expected to challenge the range of $90,000 - $110,000, triggering the main upward wave after the halving cycle.

Pessimistic scenario: If it falls below $83,000, it may revisit support at $78,000 - $75,800, forming a head-and-shoulders bottom structure before starting a rebound.

2. Risk warning

Geopolitical conflict: Tensions in the Middle East or escalating U.S.-China tariff frictions may trigger a liquidity crisis.

On-chain liquidation: A correction in U.S. stocks may trigger a 'death resonance' in the crypto market, requiring caution against chain declines caused by leverage liquidation.

3. Investment strategy

Conservative: Hold spot, accumulate in batches on dips (such as around $83,000), with stop-loss set at $81,000.

Aggressive: Follow up after breaking through $87,900, targeting $92,000; if it's a false breakout, then short.

4. Long-term narrative: Halving cycle and regulatory thaw

After the fourth halving, miner income shifts to being dominated by transaction fees. If on-chain activity increases (such as the revival of the Ordinals protocol), it may support long-term upward movement. Meanwhile, if the crypto legislation accelerates after the U.S. election, the entry of large funds from institutions like BlackRock may break the current oscillation pattern.

In summary, BTC needs to break through key resistance to confirm direction in the short term. In the medium to long term, it still has allocation value under policy and halving dividends, but caution is needed regarding macro black swans and market sentiment fluctuations.