The market changes rapidly, and trading is about the present; one sings whatever song is appropriate for the mountain they are facing. Bitcoin is rambling on, and the entire crypto market is very sluggish. Why hasn't Bitcoin seen a significant breakout after formally exiting the four-hour consolidation triangle? Currently, the price of Bitcoin is around $84,700, and it has been oscillating sharply in this position for a while. The price has been fluctuating between $84,000 and $80,000 for a week, undergoing a long period of consolidation. However, this consolidation has already broken out of the descending trend within the converging triangle, so Bitcoin could break upward at any moment, even surpassing the previous key level of $88,000.#比特币走势分析

Looking at Bitcoin's price in conjunction with some data, stablecoins did not open today, and gold has also shown a stagnation state. It is evident that the Bitcoin spot ETF is experiencing inflows, led by BlackRock's recent rally. Over the past year, BlackRock has consistently seen inflows and continued buying, while other institutions have generally been in a buying situation. The total inflow is close to 520,000 Bitcoins, indicating that overall market demand is quite strong. However, the slight decrease suggests that it's not institutional selling but rather some retail investors selling their holdings. The main pain point during the day is at $82,000, and tomorrow it will be in the $85,000 range. The Bitcoin wallet balance continues to decrease overall; as long as the Bitcoin wallet balance keeps decreasing, the price will definitely experience a huge increase.

As the time of interest rate cuts gradually approaches June 5th, there will be a Federal Reserve meeting, and there is also a meeting in June. These events are closely related. The interest rate was cut three times last year, specifically in September, November, and December. Moreover, there are expectations for two to three cuts this year, typically around 50 to 75 basis points. In previous instances, Bitcoin has usually experienced a price increase a few months before and after the interest rate cuts. This time should not be an exception; we can see a likely positive breakout in the second half of the year. Many institutions believe that by 2025, the price of Bitcoin will exceed $200,000.

Of course, Bitcoin has already surged to a high of $110,000. If interest rates are cut, Bitcoin should initiate its rebound trend in the next one to two months. For a better breakout, Bitcoin's price must rise above the $88,000 level to adequately challenge the market in the second half of the year. During the halving process, a bull market peak is typically achieved within 12-18 months. The last halving occurred in early April 2024, and it has been more than a year since then, so there are about six months left until this market phase concludes. Therefore, I believe there is still a significant possibility of a substantial breakout in the coming months. Whether gold prices will adjust and whether the US dollar will weaken are crucial factors. If the dollar weakens, it signals a strong trend for Bitcoin. Currently, with the dollar weakening and gold prices rising, when gold prices sharply reverse, the entire crypto market may undergo a dramatic change. That's all for today.