Although BTC started to rebound after pulling back to 83000, it only reached a high of 85500, thus still remaining within a broad range of fluctuations. From a structural and timing perspective, over the past two days, each 15-minute rebound high has been relatively lower. While it hasn't made a new low, it is sufficient to indicate that the upward momentum is starting to slow down. From a probabilistic standpoint, the likelihood of a short-term decline is certainly higher. We can pay attention to whether the 1-hour pullback continues later.

Market Analysis

I won't analyze the 4-hour chart today; interested readers can refer to the market analysis from the 16th.

Let's focus on the 1-hour level. In fact, the pullback to 83000 yesterday was not strictly a 1-hour level; at most, it was a 15-minute pullback. If the price breaks below 83000 later, then the structure of the 1-hour pullback will be complete, indicating that we are currently in a 1-hour pullback. However, if the market continues to fluctuate and does not break below 83000, it is more likely to make another push, with a target around 89000.

So some readers may ask, should we go long or short? Everyone should understand that the market is not absolute; there are many uncertainties, and we can only choose the side with a higher probability. Additionally, we should try to minimize risks and losses in our operations. Personally, I tend to favor shorting in the short term, so I have advised students to enter short positions at 86000, 85000, and 84000. Regardless of the entry point for shorting, just set the stop loss at 87000, which gives at least a 1:1 risk-reward ratio, with risk and return being proportional.

Short-term

I personally believe that if the market is in a 1-hour pullback, it is approaching a critical point, and chasing shorts should yield decent returns. If it doesn't drop for a while, the short-term will still be within a range of fluctuations. Even if you get caught in a few hundred to a thousand points while chasing shorts, there is no need to worry too much; exiting safely shouldn't be a big issue.