NOTE: Think Bitcoin's resilience is less a story about equit | André Dragosch, PhD | Bitcoin & Macro on Binance Square

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André Dragosch, PhD | Bitcoin & Macro

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NOTE: Think Bitcoin's resilience is less a story about equities but more about US Treasury bonds. 
Intraday correlations between BTC & the S&P 500 have remained positive but correlations between BTC & US Treasuries have turned negative. 
🚨BTC IS TURNING INTO A BOND HEDGE.

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André Dragosch, PhD | Bitcoin & Macro

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“You’re one year of focus away from people saying you got lucky.” – @SahilBloom Around this time last year, I made a bet—not just on Bitcoin, but on the belief that 2025 would be the year institutional adoption truly begins to accelerate. With developments like the Bitcoin ETF launch and Trump’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve announcement, it’s becoming clear: #Bitcoin is entering the mainstream. But with that shift comes an even bigger need—education. So I started writing a book. It’s been one of the hardest things I’ve ever done. Every morning, I wake up at 5 a.m. (or earlier), squeeze in my 5-5-5-30 workout (thanks to Sahil Bloom ) down my double espresso, and write. That’s before my wife and two little kids wake up. Then it’s on to a full-time job that demands everything I’ve got. There’s nothing glamorous about it. No cozy writing retreats or endless free time. Just early mornings, consistency, a daily routine (even on weekends) and belief in the mission. Now, as we step into the very year I predicted, people are starting to pay attention. But if this book becomes a success, it won’t be because I got lucky. It’ll be because I stayed focused for a year—even when no one was watching. I’m now very delighted to announce that the manuscript of my upcoming book 📕 Exponential Gold is finally ready for expert commentary! The book helps professional and institutional allocate to Bitcoin & cryptoassets wisely. Thanks to those experts who are spending their free time to review and comment on my book right now! 🙏 If you’re interested in receiving an early copy: The book will probably be published in June 2025! Stay humble and stack Sats, André

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The fact that merchants have a huge economic incentive to switch from credit cards to bitcoin LN payments was not on my Hyperbitcoinization bingo card for 2025.

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Pro tip: Credit ratings are ultimately irrelevant for forecasting. Downgrades often happen AFTER a fundamental deterioration in credit quality. Issuers pay the agencies to receive the rating. Ratings can be completely off (see Subprime CLOs, MBS etc) Ignore the noise.

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Think there is a high chance we could see an increase in inflation expectations towards the end of 2025 when US inflation dynamics are poised to accelerate again. This does NOT bode well for bonds.

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