Powell has completely torn the mask off, directly rubbing the US stock market's face in the dirt. Although the hawkish stance was expected by the market, the degree of toughness shown by this Federal Reserve chair is still shocking—he clearly stated that the Federal Reserve will not be politically coerced, and don’t expect the central bank to step in to save the market, making it clear that he is openly challenging the Trump administration.
Powell's strong counterattack is not without reason: on one hand, Trump is hastily interviewing new candidates for the Federal Reserve chair, and on the other hand, he is pushing the Supreme Court to expand presidential firing authority. This move is clearly aimed at Powell, forcing him to show a tough stance. Interestingly, this 'first be the bad guy, then let go' tactic is reminiscent of former SEC Chairman Gary Gensler's approach. Now, against the backdrop of Trump's frantic money printing and rampant insider trading, the crypto community surprisingly starts to reminisce about the Gary and Biden era!
However, from another perspective, if Trump can indeed install his own people to lead the Federal Reserve, it could be a major boon for the market. The new chair will undoubtedly fully cooperate with Trump's super-loose policies, and the Federal Reserve's easing efforts could far exceed those during Bernanke's era. Considering Powell's term ends in May 2026, if there are four rate cuts this year, it is very likely to double to eight next year (200 basis points), and by the end of 2026, interest rates could drop to 1.25%-1.5%. This epic level of easing would certainly send the US stock and crypto markets skyrocketing.
The Japan tariff negotiations personally led by Trump have turned into a debacle: the White House claims a significant breakthrough, while the Japanese side bluntly states there has been no progress. It seems that the 'Tariff Hero' is determined to push through to the end, with the EU and Japan continuously hitting walls, and the tariff crisis is likely to continue to ferment. The latest customs data is a slap in the face—Trump's boast of 'earning $2 billion a day' in tariffs actually amounts to only $500 million.
Speaking of the crypto space:
Bitcoin has shown astonishing resilience, far outperforming US stocks. Although $170 million flowed out of ETFs, positive macro factors keep emerging: Powell has rarely praised the mainstreaming of cryptocurrencies, suggesting potential regulatory easing. The Trump administration is also taking successive actions: reshuffling SEC/CFTC personnel, abolishing SAB121, advancing a Bitcoin reserve plan, and aligning with global regulatory frameworks like the EU's MiCA to pave the way for the second half of the bull market.
Ethereum has finally welcomed a rebound in the ETH/BTC exchange rate. Although ETF funds continue to flow out, BlackRock's strong endorsement (placing ETH alongside BTC, distinguishing it from other altcoins) suggests immense potential. Despite the fierce competition from new public chains like SOL and BNB, Ethereum remains the undisputed king in terms of centralization, consensus strength, and security. Holders might as well patiently wait for the market to catch up.
On the altcoin front: The SOL ecosystem continues to create wealth myths: the rising star DEFIANT replicates the successful path of RFC, leveraging the hype from Musk's attention to soar from a valuation of $1.5 million to $25 million in a short period. The Base chain staged an official 'fishing' farce: a tweet stating 'Base is for everyone' sparked a meme coin frenzy, with prices first soaring to $17 million before plummeting 95%, then rebounding to $22 million with community support. This pattern of 'official denial but secret promotion' is becoming increasingly common, but the concept of 'Everyone on Base' is certainly catchy and likely to be hyped up for a few more days.
