Recently, the MEME market has stirred once again. Since mid-March, the price of Fartcoin has rebounded from the bottom, rising by as much as 349% in just one month, with its total market cap once approaching $985 million. Meanwhile, whale investors in the on-chain MEME sector have been active, pouring millions of dollars into Fartcoin, RFC, and other MEME tokens, driving up the market cap of related tokens.
Against this backdrop, on April 11th, the number of active addresses on the Solana chain surpassed 5.1 million, approaching the historical peak of January. This unusual movement in the MEME market raises the question of whether it signals a full return of the MEME bull market or merely a brief return of market funds in a dull market. PANews conducted an in-depth analysis of large holder addresses of recently significantly rising MEME tokens, attempting to uncover the truth behind.
Fartcoin Analysis: Whales entered in mid-March at a cost of about $0.62.
By observing several previously high market cap tokens, PANews found that this round of MEME craze did not represent a widespread outbreak, but rather concentrated on a few specific tokens. Most previously over-a-billion market cap MEME coins (such as Trump, BONK, WIF, POPCAT) are still in a declining or bottom oscillation stage. Among the tokens counted by PANews, aside from Fartcoin, the rest are mostly new coins issued in the past 1-2 months or have shown mediocre performance since issuance. Specifically, these include RFC, Fartcoin, ALCH, GOHOME, DARK, House, FAT, etc., with screening criteria set for a market cap between $10 million to over $100 million and significant increases or rebounds in the market in the last 1-3 months. Among them, RFC's increase is the most astonishing, with a rise of up to 54 times in the past month.
The leader of this round of MEME market is Fartcoin, which has been climbing in price since it hit the bottom on March 10th, with its market cap once reaching $948 million. From the purchase timing of large holders, starting from mid-March, large holders collectively entered the market, maintaining an upward trend until April 10th. The initial purchase costs for the top 1000 large holders are concentrated between $0.2-0.6 and $0.6-0.9. Currently, only a small proportion of large holders are trapped above $1, and most current holding large holders entered the market after the price low on March 12th. Overall calculation shows that the average initial purchase cost for Fartcoin large holders is about $0.62, and based on the current price of $0.844, the newly entered large holders have an average profit of about 36%.
23% of addresses have overlapping holdings, and DARK and RFC have highly similar trends.
Overall, among the top 1000 large holders of these tokens, 23% of addresses hold at least two or more tokens. Among them, DARK has the most large holders, with a relatively short creation time but 116 large holders holding it. RFC has the highest occurrence, reaching 110 times. Although Fartcoin has gained considerable attention recently and has the highest market cap, its occurrence is only 76 times, possibly due to some large holders retreating or switching vehicles after the market cap rose.
From the K-line chart trends of RFC and DARK, aside from their different creation times, their retracement patterns and other trends are highly similar. The data on large holders holding both tokens is also close, with both exceeding 110 addresses. Further analysis reveals that 75 addresses simultaneously hold both DARK and RFC, making it the most common combination among large holders. Next, 35 addresses hold both Fartcoin and House.
In-depth analysis of the buying timing for addresses holding both RFC and DARK shows that most large holders first bought these two tokens on April 13th and 14th. On April 13th, RFC surged rapidly, increasing by 65% with an amplitude of 107%; on April 14th, DARK experienced a similar market trend, rising by 80% with an amplitude of 218%. This significant rise in quick succession seems to suggest a major player switching vehicles. However, RFC's market capitalization peaked at $138 million, while DARK's peak market cap was only $23 million, indicating that the expectations for these two tokens may differ, making it difficult for DARK to replicate RFC's market cap scale.
The 'Artificial Bull' prefers MEME culture and AI
Overall data shows that large holders with repeated holdings have a total holding amount of about $100 million across these seven tokens (excluding holdings on major trading platforms like Gate, Bitget, Raydium, etc.), accounting for 8.47% of the market cap of these tokens.
As of the early morning of April 16th, these tokens generally retraced. Among them, FAT retraced about 72.51% from its high, House retraced by 50%, and the overall average retracement was about 37.12%. Only ALCH had a smaller retracement, as it is the only AI-related token with actual application value, possibly still in a market rotation phase and not yet entering a selling cycle.
Behind this MEME rotation surge, there seems to be signs of an 'Artificial MEME Bull Market.' KOL @MasonCanoe pointed out on Twitter that the whale addresses that drove up RFC are associated with market-making addresses of several tokens like TRUMP, VIRTUAL, LIBRA, and are linked to several early addresses that had been positioned in RFC. Based on this, @MasonCanoe believes that the increase of RFC is by no means accidental but may be a signal of careful planning by large funds.
From the data performance, MEMEs on the Solana chain seem to be attracting market attention again under the push of whales. However, this pulling effect has not benefited all MEME tokens, and one needs to track the real-time dynamics of main funds to judge the direction. Additionally, the recently rising tokens are primarily in the AI and MEME culture categories, while tokens themed around cats, dogs, and frogs have failed to gain a foothold in the rise.
In summary, the recent MEME craze on the Solana chain is highly concentrated on a few specific tokens, with Fartcoin, as the leader, attracting a large number of new large holders entering the market after mid-March. More notably, there is a significant overlap of large holder addresses behind RFC and DARK, with major buying times concentrated on the sharp rises of April 13th and 14th, suggesting potential coordinated operations or main fund rotations. This round of increase bears traces of an 'artificial bull market,' and whether it can evolve into a natural influx of funds remains to be observed.