On April 15, 2025, Bitcoin's price exhibited a volatile pattern after breaking through key resistance. Technical analysis and market sentiment jointly influence the short-term direction. The following is a comprehensive analysis:

1. Price and Technical Dynamics

1. Breakthrough and Retracement

Bitcoin briefly broke through $85,000 in the morning, reaching a high of $85,800, but failed to stabilize above the key resistance level of $85,500, subsequently retreating to around $84,840 and fluctuating. The intraday trading range is $83,500-$85,500. On the daily chart, an ascending triangle pattern is forming, with MACD showing a golden cross and increasing momentum, while RSI gently rises to the 60 area, not reaching overbought conditions, indicating a strengthening trend.

2. Key Support and Resistance

- Upper Resistance: $85,500 is the short-term breakthrough focus. If the daily close stabilizes above this level and trading volume increases by over 20%, it may open up upward space to $87,500-$90,000.

- Lower Support: $83,000-$83,500 is the main support area for the day. If it falls below $82,000, it may trigger stop-loss orders, leading to a deeper correction to $80,000.

2. Market Drivers and Risk Factors

1. Positive Signals

- Institutional Capital Inflow: A listed company purchased 3,459 Bitcoins at an average price of $82,618 (approximately $285 million), and ETF net inflow was $130 million in a single day, indicating an increased willingness for long-term holding.

- Improved Macroeconomic Environment: The U.S. March CPI data met expectations, and the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in June rose to 68%, coupled with the pause in Trump's tariff policy, which has led to a resurgence in the preference for risk assets.

2. Potential Risks

- Insufficient Volume: Spot trading volume has decreased by 77% from the February peak. If the current rise is not accompanied by an increase of over 20%, it may form a "volume-less rise" trap.

- Policy and Liquidity Risks: The aftershocks of Trump's tariff policy and fluctuations in the altcoin market (e.g., OM token plummeting by 25%) may transmit to Bitcoin, intensifying short-term volatility.

3. Operational Strategy Recommendations

1. Bullish Opportunities

- Breakout Long: If there is an effective breakthrough above $85,500 accompanied by volume, one can pursue long positions up to $87,500-$90,000, with a stop-loss set below $83,500.

- Pullback Long: Enter the market after the price stabilizes at the support zone of $83,000-$83,500, targeting $85,000 with a stop-loss at $82,000.

2. Bearish Defense

- Short at Resistance: If there is resistance near $85,500 and a top pattern emerges (e.g., long upper shadow), one can short-term sell down to $83,000, with a stop-loss above $86,500.

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