The new tariff policy is one of the largest impacts on the U.S. economy in decades. If the current average tariff rate of 25% remains for a period of time, inflation could peak at around 5%; in the case of a drop to 10%, inflation could peak at 3%. In a scenario of large tariffs, if a significant economic slowdown occurs, individuals tend to lower interest rates earlier and more significantly than previously thought. In a scenario of smaller tariffs, the Federal Reserve may be more patient, with rate cuts possibly occurring in the second half of the year.

Trump's tariff remarks remain unclear, leading to a sustained high implied volatility for Bitcoin, nearly 20 points higher than recent lows. The market is pricing in this uncertainty, and everyone needs to remain cautious in an environment where risks are heating up.