Tariffs are shaking markets, fueling uncertainty and risk-off sentiment. But can Bitcoin move past near-term stress and reassert its status as a macro outlier?
We explore recent macro drivers and how crypto fits into a protectionist world.
Read the full report here.
Key Takeaways
The year 2025 has seen a dramatic resurgence of U.S.-led trade protectionism. Since President Donald Trump took office in January 2025, the United States has ignited fear of a global trade war by levying sweeping new tariffs — both country-specific and sector-specific. Over the past week alone, a fresh round of “reciprocal” tariffs was unveiled, with other nations announcing countermeasures in response.
In this report, we examine how these tariffs – the most aggressive since the 1930s – are reverberating through the macroeconomy and crypto markets. We provide data-driven analysis on tariff levels, macroeconomic trends (inflation, growth, interest rates, Fed outlook), and the resulting impact on crypto asset performance, volatility, and correlations. Finally, we discuss key areas to watch and the outlook for crypto in a stagflationary, protectionist environment.
