Markets are focusing on the numbers. But they are missing the bigger changes ahead...
The US plan targets imports with a basic 10% tariff and higher targeted rates in dozens of countries, raising consumer prices by at least 2.5%. Capital Economics estimates this could raise inflation above 4% by the end of the year.
With $9.2 trillion in US debt needing refinancing in 2025, this goes far beyond trade.
Here’s what’s really happening:
1// Manufacturing won't rush home
→ US factory utilization remained at 78.6%
→ Building new factories takes at least 3 to 5 years
→ Current automation technology cannot fill labor gaps
→ CEOs hesitate to commit billions amid political uncertainties
2// Reversing globalization has a cost
→ Consumer goods prices jump immediately
→ Supply chains need 24 to 36 months to restructure
→ The US lacks skilled labor
→ Small and medium enterprises will be the most impacted
→ And the pain may last a while...
3// Traditional allies will suffer the biggest blow
→ EU faces 20% tariffs amid recession
→ Canadian steel/aluminum exports worth billions are at risk
→ Mexican manufacturing centers lose cost advantage
→ Japan's automobile exports face pressure
→ The global ecosystem will shrink overall.
4// Currency dynamics
→ Dollar weakening as foreign investors exit tech stocks
→ CNY may weaken beyond 8:00 AM to combat tariffs
→ JPY will likely have aggressive QE response
→ Treasury yields drop with interest rate cut expectations
→ All roads lead to more money printing...
Forecast: this creates perfect conditions for the adoption of cryptocurrencies
Why? Companies and individuals need:
→ Stable value storage
→ Rapid cross-border settlement
→ Flexibility of capital movement
→ Protection against currency volatility
BTC is emerging as a shield against inflation. Stablecoins as a shield against volatility.
We are watching monetary history reshape in real time.
What do you think will happen next?