How much can the big pancake drop?

Here it comes again, you can't just directly discount from the highest price like that!

The price has accumulated over many, many years, how can you just give a discount on top?

Let me give you an example. Suppose in the future, BTC price rises from 1 million to 1.1 million, can you directly apply a discount at 1.1 million?

The correct calculation method should be that 1 million rises to 1.1 million, an increase of 100,000, and then calculate the pullback based on that 100,000.

BTC had a bottom of 16,000 at the end of 2022, and the top in 2024-2025 is 106,000, an increase of 90,000. As this friend mentioned, a pullback of about 50% is more in line with expectations, which reflects that after the funds flow into BTC, half of it flows out.

106,000 - 90,000 * 0.5 = 61,000

Previously, Brother Bee analyzed that the previous high of 70,000 might dip a bit.

So the bottom for BTC could be between 60,000 and 70,000. How low it can actually go is difficult to predict in extreme cases.

In any case, do not give me a direct 50% discount on the big pancake of 106,000! That's not how it works!! The 16,000 below is long-term capital from the previous ten years and will not move at all!