📅 Latest tariff policy timeline from January to April 2025
January 20-23: Policy initiation
After Trump's inauguration, he quickly signed an executive order to establish a 'Digital Assets Working Group' to promote cryptocurrency regulatory reform, but soon threatened to impose a 25% tariff due to the Colombian immigration dispute, causing market turmoil.
February 1-10: Tariff escalation
February 1: Announced a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, and a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico, leading to a 9.3% daily plunge in Bitcoin.
February 10: Further escalated steel tariffs to 25% and proposed a 'reciprocal tariff' plan, covering industries such as automotive and semiconductors, exacerbating global supply chain concerns.
March: Policy oscillation and adjustment
March 4: The White House announced the imposition of tariffs on Canada and Mexico, effective immediately, but exempted goods that comply with the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, showing policy flexibility.
March 24: The government signals that the range of 'reciprocal tariffs' may be narrowed, focusing on countries with a long-term trade surplus of 15% (such as the EU, Japan, and South Korea), with some industries possibly exempt.
March 27: Trump states tax rates will be 'lower than expected,' hinting at policy easing to alleviate market panic.
April 2: Reciprocal tariffs are officially implemented.
Signed an executive order announcing a 10% 'minimum baseline tariff' on trade partners (effective from the 5th), and higher tax rates on specific countries (like Canada and the EU), affecting industries such as automotive and pharmaceuticals.
China, Canada, the EU, and others announce countermeasures:
China resolutely retaliates against US tariffs: imposing a 34% tariff on all imported goods originating from the US.
Canada imposes a 25% tariff on US goods worth 29.8 billion Canadian dollars.
The EU imposes tariffs on €26 billion worth of goods.
Global stock market turmoil, cryptocurrency bloodbath.
April 7: Trump makes bold claims
'If China does not withdraw its 34% retaliatory tariffs against the US by Tuesday, the US will impose an additional 50% tariff on China starting Wednesday.'
Trump posted again on social media: 'All Chinese requests for talks with the US will be terminated, and negotiations with other countries that have proposed talks will be initiated immediately.'
🎯 Trump's tariff policy: A political gamble, economic risk, and a double-edged sword in the game of debt.
In an era of globalization, Trump's tariff policy is like a high-risk gamble, with stakes not only on the economic lifeblood of America but also on the stability of global trade order and the continuity of dollar hegemony.
This policy is often labeled as 'capricious' and 'psychotic operation,' but if examined from the perspective of political logic, economic goals, and debt pressure, it may reveal deeper calculations behind it.
However, is this gamble truly a panacea for 'protecting the soul of America,' or a fuse accelerating the decline of hegemony?
1. Political goals prioritized: electoral interests and the narrative of 'America First'
Trump's tariff policy is primarily a carefully planned political show.
During the 2024 election, he raised the banner of 'protecting American workers', claiming tariffs are a tool to 'save the soul of America', successfully igniting enthusiasm among voters in the Midwest 'Rust Belt'. Data shows that in 2024, voter turnout in key swing states like Michigan and Wisconsin reached new highs, with Trump's approval rating in these areas soaring by 15 percentage points, far exceeding 2016 levels.
📌 Calculations in the policy window
In the first half of 2025, the Republican Party controls Congress, and the unemployment rate falls to 3.8%, with the economy appearing prosperous, providing Trump with a 'golden window' to implement radical tariffs.
He attempts to shape an image of 'economic strongman' through a tough stance, temporarily tolerating market fluctuations.
However, if the stock market falls by more than 15% or signs of economic recession emerge (as predicted by the Cambridge University report with a recession probability rising to 25-30%), Trump may be forced to compromise before the midterm elections in 2026, and the political dividends may vanish in an instant.
2. The paradox of economic goals: The dilemma of industry repatriation and fiscal revenue.
Trump claims tariffs can 'coerce industries to return' and 'increase government revenue,' but this logic hides a fatal contradiction:
📉 High tariffs, if successful in reducing imports, would lead to a decline in tax revenue;
📉 If imports remain, there's no talk of industry repatriation.
In 2025, US tariffs on China increased from 25% to 60%, imports plummeted by 30%, but tariff revenue did not increase and the fiscal deficit pressure grew.
📉 The dual impact of inflation and recession
Moody's analysis points out that the current scale of tariffs far exceeds that of the first term, and consumers will bear a 0.5% inflationary pressure;
One year later, US GDP fell by 0.6%, losing 250,000 jobs;
The automotive industry is hit the hardest: Steel and aluminum tariffs cause car prices to rise by 6%, and General Motors announces layoffs of 50,000 people.
🕰 A wake-up call from historical lessons
In 1930 (Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act), a global trade war was triggered, and US exports plummeted by 80%;
Though George W. Bush's steel tariffs briefly protected the steel industry in 2002, it caused 200,000 job losses in downstream industries and expanded the deficit to $400 billion.
Today, the S&P 500 index has retraced all gains post-election, and the VIX fear index has surged to new highs, with 'Trump recession' becoming a buzzword.
3. Diplomatic pressure tool: 'Mixed mercantilism' that transcends trade protectionism.
Trump's tariff policy has long surpassed the economic realm, becoming a 'heavy weapon' in diplomatic competition.
March 2025,
Threatens to impose 100% tariffs on Russia, forcing Russia and Ukraine to resume ceasefire negotiations;
Accuses Canada and Mexico of 'tolerating fentanyl smuggling,' threatening punitive tariffs.
🤝 However, it backfires:
Canadian Prime Minister Carney harshly criticizes 'America is no longer a reliable partner';
The EU and Australia join forces to retaliate;
the global process of 'de-dollarization' accelerates.
🌍 The cost of international isolation
In April 2025, China reduced its holdings of US Treasury bonds by $24 billion and shifted to gold;
Saudi Arabia lowers its holdings of US Treasury bonds from 40% to 25%;
The use of euros in the Eurozone has risen to 42%, and the dominance of the dollar is in jeopardy.
4. The hidden goal of debt relief: Tactical operations to depress US Treasury yields?
Behind Trump's 'unpredictable' policy style may lie a systemic goal:
📉 By creating a 'turbulent but controllable' crisis, it depresses US Treasury yields and alleviates debt rollover pressure.
📌 Operational mechanism
Safe-haven boosts US Treasury purchases: In April 2025, after imposing tariffs on the EU, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell by 15 basis points to 3.2%;
The game between inflation and growth: high inflation → possible interest rate hikes; low growth → possible interest rate cuts;
Substitution effect of fiscal revenue: Tariffs are expected to bring in $85 billion in revenue by 2025, which, while only accounting for 2%, can be combined with tightening policies to reduce borrowing needs.
By 2025,
US federal debt exceeds $40 trillion,
Interest expenses reach $1.2 trillion,
If the yield decreases by 1 percentage point, it could save about $400 billion annually, equivalent to 60% of the military budget.
Trump once criticized 'high interest rates lead to the bankruptcy of America', and the policy may intentionally guide market expectations.
⛔ Limitations: self-defeating logic.
Out-of-control inflation → Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates → rising debt costs.
Recession expands → tax base shrinks, offsetting benefits of interest rate cuts.
Market retaliation: countries like China and Saudi Arabia reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds, and investors demand a higher 'risk premium.'
5. Conclusion: The essence of policy and the triple crisis
Trump's tariff policy is essentially a dangerous combination of political strategy, economic risk, and debt game.
🔺 Short-term:
Using tough measures to consolidate the voter base, depress US Treasury yields, and win fiscal space.
🔻 Long-term:
It may trigger a triple crisis:
Economic backlash: Inflation and recession coexist, and policies may be forced to shift;
International isolation: Allies retaliate, and supply chain relocation weakens influence;
Financial turmoil: Market confidence is undermined, and risk assets like Bitcoin experience sharp fluctuations.
Nobel laureate Paul Krugman warns:
'Using tariffs as a monetary policy tool is like using matches to extinguish a gasoline fire— the only certainty is that it will backfire.'
Is Trump's tariff gamble a carefully planned debt relief program or a self-destructive, psychotic operation?
At the intersection of history and reality may lie the wake-up call for American policy arrogance.
This chaos from Trump should come to an end.
