In the cryptocurrency market, this round of bull market faces a deep-seated contradiction: there is a huge gap between the strong optimistic expectations created by external factors and the weak reality of internal industry development. Lacking internal value support and relying solely on external favorable factors, the market is bound to fall into 'chaos.' The following is an analysis of the current primary and secondary markets from multiple dimensions.
1. A New Perspective on the Bull-Bear Battle
In the current market environment, simply debating bulls and bears has no substantial significance. Bull and bear trends depend not only on the continuous ups and downs of coin prices but are more importantly dominated by the consensus of market expectations. When the market generally believes that most projects have no value, viewing listing coins as the ultimate goal of project parties, and ignoring positive news released by project parties, the characteristics of a bear market become very obvious.
Compared to mere price sluggishness, the collapse of market consensus is undoubtedly more terrifying. Because consensus is the value foundation recognized collectively by market participants; once collapsed, investor confidence will suffer a severe blow, and market vitality and liquidity will consequently dry up.
2. The Dilemma of the Crypto Market
Currently, the development of the Crypto market presents a contradictory situation: it is full of opportunities but also faces severe challenges. Looking back at the industry's development history, from the early ICO market's preliminary exploration of decentralized infrastructure to the last cycle's upgrade iterations around technological narratives, to the main upward wave brought by a large influx of institutional investors, and the wealth effect triggered by MEME Coins, up to recent times, the long-awaited spot ETF in the crypto market has successfully landed, while the U.S. government has shown a relatively friendly attitude towards the crypto industry, with compliance bills and plans gradually advancing. These external factors undoubtedly release positive signals.
However, examining the internal Crypto industry, truly irreplaceable projects are few and far between, and the technical infrastructure that can achieve large-scale application is scarce. The authenticity and sustainability of various narratives also need to be verified. Whether it is long-term investment coins or short-term speculative MEME Coins, it is difficult for investors to hold them with peace of mind. In the face of these internal development issues, most market participants feel confused and bewildered.
This indicates that if there are only external favorable factors without strong internal value support, the market will continue to wander in chaos. If investors abandon value analysis and irrationally rely solely on macroeconomic easing policies for investment, not only will they find it difficult to achieve ideal returns, but they will also endure tremendous psychological pressure.
3. Breaking the Deadlock and Future Outlook
Since we recognize the current problems in the market, how should we break the deadlock? While it is certainly important to call for a return to technological narratives, if old technology projects cannot achieve innovative applications, they will still struggle to drive market development. Similarly, merely blaming the irrationality of the MEME market is essentially evading the core contradiction of technology being difficult to implement. At the root, this stems from long-standing systemic issues in the industry, such as lack of information transparency, market manipulation, regulatory absence, and excessive profit-seeking, which have led to vicious games and resource depletion within the industry.
To break this deadlock, one must inevitably go through a difficult and painful process, and it requires time to gradually resolve. For example, establishing a reasonable project valuation system to give valuable projects the recognition they deserve and to let worthless projects lose their space to survive; exploring sustainable development paths for new narrative directions to inject new vitality into the market.
Looking from another angle, when the market speculation frenzy subsides, inferior assets are eliminated, and real value investment opportunities will come to the surface. Although there are many junk projects in the market, it is undeniable that there are still some teams with great visions, innovative capabilities, and execution power, adhering to the long-termism concept and continuously digging deeper.
Looking back on the development of the Crypto industry, each cycle will experience phases of excessive enthusiasm and extreme pessimism, but ultimately they all successfully overcome challenges and find ways to break the deadlock, achieving progress and development in the industry. Therefore, we have reason to remain cautiously optimistic about the future of the Crypto market.