I studied the real trading of the trading god Tony.
Tony was the first to propose the theory of the disappearance of dividends. When a leader in an industry becomes the richest person, it signals the beginning of a decline.
Real trading also began to be recorded after the big coin reached 70,000. At that time, market sentiment was very high. This phase still had some continuation, with the curve showing basically positive growth from March to July, and the pullbacks were small.
Phase One
From July to September, the market gradually cooled down. The long eight-month consolidation and multiple false breakouts caused many retail investors to exit the market. This phase can also be seen in the real trading data, which showed fluctuations up and down.
Moving, due to Tony's insistence on being bearish, after the big coin truly broke through, it faced a significant pullback.
Phase Two
Starting in December, the big coin skyrocketed, but during this phase, aside from the big coin and some local surges, most memes and VC projects started a non-rebounding decline after reaching their peaks. During this phase, Tony fully shorted junk altcoins, and the real trading curve welcomed a wave of major upward trends.
Tony's real trading curve perfectly corroborates the views in the quotes.
1. A trading system with a positive expected value will always have a series of profitable periods, as well as a series of losing periods. If your trading system is a verified system with a positive mathematical expectation, as long as you trade enough times, you will definitely end up making money.
2. No one can truly judge when the top has been reached; it's all just probabilities. When a new signal appears, the probability of reaching the top increases; when a new signal appears, the probability of hitting the bottom increases... It's merely a probability that may be a bit larger, just like on a cloudy day, the chance of rain increases, but it does not mean it will definitely rain. One should use probabilistic thinking to understand trading.
3. There is a basic principle for making breakthroughs: all breakthroughs should be treated as true breakthroughs. Do not speculate whether this is real or fake; treat all breakthroughs as real. All breakthroughs come at a cost, and the cost is the possibility of too many false breakouts leading to frequent stop losses. But this is necessary, and it must be considered in anything you do. If you want to gain, you must first consider what you are willing to sacrifice. If you always try to avoid the cost of false breakout stop losses, you will pay a greater price: missing out on significant market opportunities.
4. The essence of trading is: cut losses when wrong, hold on when right, small losses for big gains, and create significant profit and loss.
5. If you want to make money in this market, you must learn more and have your own thoughts. You can find an excellent person and learn from them, but you must be yourself, rather than just thinking about whether following their trades can make you some money. Perhaps you can make money once or twice, but it's impossible to earn money in the long term.
6. There is still a vast gap between understanding and execution, so being very accurate in analysis has almost no practical significance. The ability to earn money in real operations is what truly matters; one must look at the actual profit and loss curve. Without real-time proof, all claims are just deception.
