Singapore-based cryptocurrency trading firm QCP Capital has released an analysis of the cryptocurrency market, highlighting that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the S&P 500 have all recorded their weakest quarterly performance in three years. The report notes that over $160 billion in cryptocurrency market capitalization was wiped out since Friday, signaling a challenging start to the second quarter as the market struggles to regain bullish momentum.
The sharp decline on Friday was largely driven by a large quarter-end options expiry event, during which aggressive selling by dealers pushed perpetual futures funding rates from neutral to negative. This market-wide deleveraging coincided with macroeconomic data that added further pressure. Core inflation figures for February came in higher than expected, reinforcing concerns about persistent inflation, while consumer spending remained subdued.
Looking ahead, market participants are now focused on the next potential catalyst. On April 2nd, former US President Donald Trump is set to announce what he has termed “Liberation Day,” during which he is expected to unveil a broad set of reciprocal tariffs.
This announcement comes at a time of heightened economic uncertainty. With consumer confidence at its lowest level in 12 years and equity markets already experiencing a 4-5% weekly decline, there are concerns that an extensive tariff regime could exacerbate recession fears and trigger further selloffs in risk assets. However, political events often allow room for adjustments, and a more measured approach to the tariff rollout could provide temporary relief to the markets.
QCP Capital also pointed out that volatility indicators are providing mixed signals. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), a measure of stock market volatility, remains elevated at 22, reflecting ongoing uncertainty in equities. However, cryptocurrency volatility has remained surprisingly muted despite the recent market decline. On QCP’s trading desk, sentiment appeared cautiously optimistic as markets opened in Asia, with traders positioning for a potential recovery. Buyers were seen taking options bets on BTC reaching $85,000 to $90,000, while downside risk was hedged at $75,000, suggesting expectations of a more stable start to the second quarter.
Historically, April has been a strong month for cryptocurrencies, but QCP Capital remains cautious. The firm expects the market to trade sideways in the near term as investors assess ongoing macroeconomic risks and look for clearer direction.
Beyond Donald Trump’s tariff announcement, several key economic events this week could contribute to further market volatility. On April 1st, the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and JOLTS Job Openings report will provide insights into economic activity. April 3rd will bring the ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), followed by April 4th, when the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, the unemployment rate, and a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell are expected to influence market sentiment.
Bitcoin Climbs Above $84,000 Mark, Ethereum Surges 3.94%
At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $84,324, reflecting a 2.67% increase over the past 24 hours. During this period, the cryptocurrency reached a high of $84,456 and a low of $81,885.
ETH is currently valued at $1,878, marking a 3.94% gain within the same timeframe. The asset’s highest recorded price in the last 24 hours was $1,888, while its lowest point was $1,804.
The overall cryptocurrency market capitalization now stands at $2.72 trillion, representing a 2.89% increase from the previous day. Additionally, the total trading volume across the cryptocurrency market has surged by 22.30% over the past 24 hours, reaching $77.07 billion, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
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