Core view: Multiple factors overlapping, significant mid-term adjustment pressure
Famous trader "Mining Penguin"'s latest analysis points out that, combining technical and macro environment, Bitcoin may face significant correction risks in April-May, with key observation points including:
Technical pressure: K-line shows weakening upward momentum, the support level before $76,500 is under test
Macroeconomic policy risk:
Delay in Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations (originally two rate cuts in 2025 may be postponed)
Uncertainty in Trump's policy inclination during the U.S. election cycle
Market structure change: Excessively high leverage in the derivatives market, beware of cascading liquidation risks
Potential trend evolution: A "V-shaped" scenario of first suppression and then rise
Second quarter (April-June): Correction target range $71,000-$74,000, potential decline of 12%-15% from current price
Third quarter: If the correction is sufficient, it may open up a recovery trend, targeting above $80,000
Smart money layout strategy: Three types of tools to cope with volatility
On-chain monitoring tools (e.g., Glassnode):
Track net inflows to exchanges, changes in whale addresses
Identify market panic/greed extremes
Derivatives hedging portfolio:
Use options to construct a "collar strategy" to protect spot positions
Maintain low leverage on futures contracts (3-5x)
Automated grid trading:
Set tiered buy orders in the range of $71,000-$78,000
Manage risks with profit-taking and stop-loss algorithms
Industry impact: Altcoins may face greater volatility
Mainstream coins (such as ETH) may follow BTC's correction
High beta small coins may have a volatility range of 30%-50%
Particular caution is needed for selling pressure on low circulation projects with high FDV
Cold thinking: Alpha opportunities in crises
Historical data shows that BTC often reaches new highs at the end of the year after mid-year adjustments in halving years. For long-term investors, this potential correction may provide:
Dollar-cost averaging window (build positions below $75,000)
Buying opportunities for quality Altcoins due to "wronged selling"
Golden opportunity to layout infrastructure track
Operational suggestions (not financial advice)
Retain 30%-50% cash position waiting for lower levels
Key monitoring of CME futures gaps ($72,000, $68,000)
Pay attention to the Federal Reserve's forward guidance before the June meeting
Conclusion: Volatility is the norm in the crypto market
As the mining penguin said: "The market never rises straight up; smart traders always look for asymmetric risk-reward ratios amidst volatility." In the context of increasing macro uncertainties, a tool-based and disciplined investment approach becomes particularly important.
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Disclaimer: This article is merely a sharing of market views and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency is highly volatile; please make cautious decisions based on your own risk tolerance.
