The U.S. economy is at a crossroads. Despite having inherited, according to some indicators, a relatively strong economy, the tensions arising from the trade war and protectionist policies are generating growing fears of a recession during 2025. Several analysts have warned that the measures taken to balance the budget —including reducing federal jobs and cutting spending— could have unintended side effects, affecting various sectors of the economy and increasing the risk of a significant slowdown.
A 40% chance of recession in 2025
According to a report from Cointelegraph, the United States faces up to a 40% chance of falling into recession over the course of the year, driven by a prolonged trade war and persistent macroeconomic uncertainty. In a recent interview, Nic Puckrin, founder of Coin Bureau and a recognized market analyst, pointed out that while recession is not inevitable, "the likelihood has increased significantly" due to the current economic environment, where the implementation of tariffs and other fiscal adjustments act as risk factors.
The impact of the trade war
The tariff measures adopted by the Trump administration have been the main catalyst for this uncertainty. The tariffs, designed to pressure trading partners and reduce the trade deficit, have had repercussions that extend beyond the industrial sector. In the realm of cryptocurrencies, for example, the announcement of these measures triggered a 24% correction in the price of Bitcoin, which since its peak of over $109,000 on January 20 has been forced to trade below its 200-day exponential moving average. This shift in market sentiment —from post-election optimism to a state of panic— has affected not only Bitcoin but numerous altcoins, generating a high volatility environment.
Moreover, uncertainty has led to a notable decline in the Dollar Index (DXY), as investors seek refuge in markets considered more stable, such as European markets. This shift in capital flows translates into a weakening of the dollar, which in turn affects the dynamics of international prices.
Market reactions and possible scenarios
Nicolai Sondergaard, research analyst at Nansen, anticipates that pressure on cryptocurrency markets could persist until April 2025. According to this expert, if the involved countries manage to negotiate an end to tariffs or if the Trump administration softens its stance, a recovery in risk asset markets could begin. Similarly, Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, has suggested that Bitcoin may have already reached a "price bottom" in March 2025, as the rhetoric surrounding tariffs has begun to ease, which could signal the start of a reversal in prices.
Meanwhile, in traditional financial markets, stock indices have shown signs of nervousness. The declines in the major Wall Street indices reflect investor skepticism over the possibility that tariff policy will slow down economic activity. The atmosphere has become especially tense in sectors such as automotive and technology, where supply chains and international investments are at stake.
An uncertain future
The scenario for 2025 is undoubtedly complex. On one hand, the Trump administration's measures aim to protect the domestic industry and balance public accounts; on the other hand, the cost of these measures may be high, generating inflationary effects and reducing consumer confidence. The combination of tariffs, uncertainty in trade negotiations, and market caution could result in a vicious cycle that affects economic growth.
In the short term, volatility will remain the order of the day, with investors alert for any signs of change in trade policy or in the tone of the president's rhetoric. In the long term, the outcome will largely depend on whether agreements are reached that allow for easing tensions in international trade relations or if the administration continues with an aggressive policy that ultimately affects economic stability.
In conclusion, while the United States faces an economic landscape full of challenges, the path toward a possible recession depends on the leaders' ability to find a balance between protecting domestic industry and maintaining a favorable environment for investment and growth. The coming months will be decisive in determining whether the North American economy can weather this storm or if a recession period looms that could have global effects.
