Why you need to stop listening to blind crash calls and start thinking probabilistically!
Let’s get one thing straight:
Technical Analysis isn’t about predicting one future—it’s about mapping many possible futures, each with its own probability.
♦️ Imagine Bitcoin’s path like a probability cone
There are multiple outcomes ahead for BTC. Some are less likely, some more probable. One path (say the purple one) holds the highest chance based on current data—but no path is 100% guaranteed. Just like when you step out of your house:
You might get hit by a car.
You might win the lottery.
You probably just go to work and come back.
♦️ So why are you treating Bitcoin any differently?
Why blindly believe those who scream:
“BTC is crashing to $60K!”
without showing a single chart, indicator, or macro-economic metric to support that claim?
They’re just drawing lines—no data, no indicators, just vibes.
♦️ Let’s look at actual probabilities:
No indicator has flashed a top—on-chain, funding, or sentiment.
Liquidity in the USA is at its bottom—QT is ending, and QE is starting.
New leadership is PRO-Bitcoin—regulations are slowly shifting in crypto’s favor.
Seasonality shows March is weak, but April onwards tends to bring renewed strength—especially in presidential cycle years, based on data since 1940.
♦️ Whales are buying. Michael Saylor is buying. Corporations are accumulating.
And yet… you listen to bears with no thesis, no logic, no math?
It’s beyond me how people fall for the loudest voice in the room when they’re offering zero substance.
♦️ Here’s what I’m watching:
Purple path = most likely: Tap $80K in April.
Black swan event? Always possible—but statistically unlikely.
Seasonality, macro, indicators, and whale behavior all align for more upside.
♦️ What you can do:
Stop looking at price alone.
Analyze liquidity, fundamentals, seasonality, and on-chain data.
Use probability cones in your TA.
DYOR and don’t fall for lazy TA.
♦️ Final thought:
You can’t win this game by doing what the herd does.
You win by thinking differently. By thinking in probabilities, not certainties.
Not financial advice—but mark this post.
Share. Like. Follow me for real insights, not recycled fear.
♦️ I don’t do BS. I track data.
♦️ I bet against the herd.
♦️ I want you to win.
Let’s tap $80K in April and melt the faces off the non-believers.